UMNO - Four rising sons

These kinds of silence contrasted with the emotional outbursts against the ‘treason’ of those Malays who had worked against UMNO – meaning, of course, Anwar Ibrahim.

But to understand UMNO’s ‘problem with Anwar’, one must take a longer view of a significant development within UMNO about which very little has been written, let alone debated.

Had Anwar succeeded Dr Mahathir, the transition in UMNO leadership would have involved a clear generational change. Smooth as it has been, the Mahathir-Abdullah transition is something of a half-generational change, waiting for Abdullah’s succession by someone younger to complete the process.

Here, the ‘hidden text’ of the 2008 UMNO General Assembly comes into its own.

The party elections would result in the unexpected rise, return or defeat of several UMNO veterans. Arguably, that’s not terribly significant.

In the long term, it is Najib Tun Razak, Hishamuddin Hussein, Mukhriz Mahathir and Khairy Jamaluddin who visibly represent the UMNO’s ‘Gen Next’ leadership. Three of these four figures are the sons of ex-UMNO Presidents. The fourth is the current President’s son-in-law.

There has been enormous personality hype in the media reports about their comings and goings. That’s unavoidable. But it doesn’t count in UMNO politics, does it? Each of them must demonstrate he’s not an inferior copy of a distinguished father or father-in-law.

With UMNO’s previous succession convulsions, what ministerial record can Najib boast to show that he doesn’t deserve to end up like Musa Hitam, Ghafar Baba or Anwar Ibrahim, each an heir apparent who failed to reach the top post?

What solid achievements can Hishamuddin present when the time comes for him to make his ‘boys to men’ upgrade?

Newcomer Mukhriz is still unexposed and comments on his election mentioned less his ability than ‘sympathy for Mahathir’. The other newcomer, Khairy, already seems overexposed as to invite derision, rightly or wrongly.

In any case, if their collective emergence is not coincidental, what does it portend for UMNO’s future? No one knows now, but let us speculate this much.

If these four ‘rising sons’ keep their wits together, their acts in place and their interests in accord, they will represent the making of an oligarchy. Potentially, though, that will raise the ire of other wannabes within a party that used to pride itself on being a bastion of democracy.

However, if the four have a falling out, the possible scenarios of factional struggles among them will reenact UMNO’s worst crises ever and the fall of UMNO.

Either way, and especially if there’s an economic crisis, stemming from a global recession, say, UMNO’s far from immune to another bout of succession in-fighting.

Can we already be glimpsing the shape of UMNO’s future dilemma?

Hassan
via email

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