KUALA LUMPUR: Victory or defeat for the PKR in Bukit Selambau very much depends on how it persuades several of them to pull out before polling on April 7 and declare their support for Pakatan Rakyat candidate S. Manikumar, 35.
It also depends a lot on how it appeases its own leaders who were short listed as candidates but not selected but are not standing as independents.
They are either boycotting the by-election, staying home or worst resigning like Jerai PKR chief B. Kalaivanar who quit the party Monday taking about 350 members with him.
While Kalaivanar and his group are unlikely to join BN but quitting PKR and dissolving the PKR division does considerable damage to Pakatan Rakyat morale and comes as an unexpected boon for the BN.
The issue at the centre of all these unwanted problems is that Manikumar, a political novice, is unconnected with the Hindraf and Makkal Sakthi movement and was selected by a business tycoon close to Pakatan supremo Anwar Ibrahim.
The PKR connected independents are angry they had to go through a long selection process when in fact the candidate for the by-election had already been decided much earlier.
"He is a parachute candidate not because he is not a Bukit Selambau local but because he is unknown to us…we have fought the BN day and night in Kedah but we don't know him," said Kalaivanar when contacted today.
"How can Anwar do this to us," he said.
There is also some unhappiness among top PKR leaders in not only at the choice of Manikumar but over the growing influence of this tycoon over party matters and over Anwar.
Although Kalaivanar did not contest like Hindraf national co-ordinator R.S.Thanenthiran, other PKR leaders and key grassroots Makkal Sakthi leaders are contesting.
These include independents like A. Jayagopal, 55, Baling chief Radzi Lazim and S. Moganakumar who was special assistant to former assemblyman V. Arumugam.
It is people like them who had mobilised voters to give Arumugam a large 2,300 vote majority during the March 8, 2008 general election.
"These individuals should not be treated like other independents in other elections that are either bought over at the last moment or end up garnering a few dozen votes," said Thanenthiran.
"The independents in Butki Selambau are contesting out of hurt pride and for honour," he told The Malaysian Insider. "Together they can slash the Pakatan majority."
Last year Arumugam, standing as an independent, won by a handsome majority and the PKR is hoping Manikumar can do the same despite the protests and the damage from Hindraf/Makkal Sakthi followers who are unhappy with Manikumar.
The issue is whether the independents, together or individually, can take away the majority they had helped to raise on March 8 and give the seat back to the MIC/BN.
At least this is what MIC president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu is hoping would happen.
"The MIC and the BN's support remains intact in Bukit Selambau and with many local grassroots Indian and other leaders who had helped the opposition, now returning to the BN, we are hopeful of a victory," Samy Vellu said.
The critical issue from now until polling on April 7 is whether PKR leaders can persuade the independents to pull out and hit the ground in a effective enough way to counter the damage done by Kalaivanar and others.
A lot depends how Padang Serai MP N.Gobalakrishnan performs, PKR insiders said, to reduce the haemorrhage because he was close to Kalaivanar and others.
Pakatan supremo Anwar Ibrahim will also have to personally step in and turn on his charms and do some horse trading to minimise the damage.
"We have been discussing with the independents and have even offered other posts like a Senatorship to assuage the hurt pride," said a senior PKR leader.
"It is not that we are not willing to discuss but some of the independents are asking for the sky."
"We believe that with or without them, the voters are with Pakatan and they understand that this is a battle between a rising coalition in Pakatan and a discredited coalition in BN," the leader said requesting anonymity.
The BN is unlikely to let the division in PKR Kedah let pass and are already actively persuading several independents to pull out and declare their support for BN candidate Datuk S. Ganesan.
Baradan Kuppusamy
Malaysian Insider
30/03/09
It also depends a lot on how it appeases its own leaders who were short listed as candidates but not selected but are not standing as independents.
They are either boycotting the by-election, staying home or worst resigning like Jerai PKR chief B. Kalaivanar who quit the party Monday taking about 350 members with him.
While Kalaivanar and his group are unlikely to join BN but quitting PKR and dissolving the PKR division does considerable damage to Pakatan Rakyat morale and comes as an unexpected boon for the BN.
The issue at the centre of all these unwanted problems is that Manikumar, a political novice, is unconnected with the Hindraf and Makkal Sakthi movement and was selected by a business tycoon close to Pakatan supremo Anwar Ibrahim.
The PKR connected independents are angry they had to go through a long selection process when in fact the candidate for the by-election had already been decided much earlier.
"He is a parachute candidate not because he is not a Bukit Selambau local but because he is unknown to us…we have fought the BN day and night in Kedah but we don't know him," said Kalaivanar when contacted today.
"How can Anwar do this to us," he said.
There is also some unhappiness among top PKR leaders in not only at the choice of Manikumar but over the growing influence of this tycoon over party matters and over Anwar.
Although Kalaivanar did not contest like Hindraf national co-ordinator R.S.Thanenthiran, other PKR leaders and key grassroots Makkal Sakthi leaders are contesting.
These include independents like A. Jayagopal, 55, Baling chief Radzi Lazim and S. Moganakumar who was special assistant to former assemblyman V. Arumugam.
It is people like them who had mobilised voters to give Arumugam a large 2,300 vote majority during the March 8, 2008 general election.
"These individuals should not be treated like other independents in other elections that are either bought over at the last moment or end up garnering a few dozen votes," said Thanenthiran.
"The independents in Butki Selambau are contesting out of hurt pride and for honour," he told The Malaysian Insider. "Together they can slash the Pakatan majority."
Last year Arumugam, standing as an independent, won by a handsome majority and the PKR is hoping Manikumar can do the same despite the protests and the damage from Hindraf/Makkal Sakthi followers who are unhappy with Manikumar.
The issue is whether the independents, together or individually, can take away the majority they had helped to raise on March 8 and give the seat back to the MIC/BN.
At least this is what MIC president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu is hoping would happen.
"The MIC and the BN's support remains intact in Bukit Selambau and with many local grassroots Indian and other leaders who had helped the opposition, now returning to the BN, we are hopeful of a victory," Samy Vellu said.
The critical issue from now until polling on April 7 is whether PKR leaders can persuade the independents to pull out and hit the ground in a effective enough way to counter the damage done by Kalaivanar and others.
A lot depends how Padang Serai MP N.Gobalakrishnan performs, PKR insiders said, to reduce the haemorrhage because he was close to Kalaivanar and others.
Pakatan supremo Anwar Ibrahim will also have to personally step in and turn on his charms and do some horse trading to minimise the damage.
"We have been discussing with the independents and have even offered other posts like a Senatorship to assuage the hurt pride," said a senior PKR leader.
"It is not that we are not willing to discuss but some of the independents are asking for the sky."
"We believe that with or without them, the voters are with Pakatan and they understand that this is a battle between a rising coalition in Pakatan and a discredited coalition in BN," the leader said requesting anonymity.
The BN is unlikely to let the division in PKR Kedah let pass and are already actively persuading several independents to pull out and declare their support for BN candidate Datuk S. Ganesan.
Baradan Kuppusamy
Malaysian Insider
30/03/09
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