KUALA LUMPUR: The upcoming Hulu Selangor parliamentary by-election has put both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat in a quandary.
For BN, going by tradition, the seat belongs to MIC but with the change in the political scenario in the aftermath of the March 2008 political tsunami, the coalition may lose the seat again.
Indian voters comprise just 19 percent of the total constituents of 63,593 while Malays make up 53 percent, Chinese (26) and others (three).
BN may risk losing the seat if an MIC candidate is fielded because Umno members may decide not to cast their ballots.
Umno members’ support for MIC plummeted after the March 2008 debacle but the party launched an aggressive drive to regain the trust and confidence of the Indian community, largely ignoring the Malays.
Thus many Umno grassroots members felt slighted and since then they have not taken MIC seriously as a partner in the ruling coalition.
“This happens at the grassroots level, not at the leadership level... when you talk about voting, you are talking about the voters at large.
“MIC must remember this... even its president (S) Samy Vellu must remember that he himself was abandoned by the Malay voters in Sungai Siput in 2008,” said an Umno member.
Thus, Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak is faced with a dilemma – if he picks an MIC candidate, he risks losing the seat; if he doesn't, he risks losing the trust of a long-time partner.
A no-win situation
It is certain that fielding an MIC candidate will make BN an underdog: it will have to fight an uphill battle to calm down disgruntled Umno division members as well as the Malay voters.
BN has another problem: if it ignores tradition and fields an Umno man for the Hulu Selangor seat, it has to pick a man acceptable to the majority of the division members there. Otherwise, it will suffer a similar fate as in past by-elections where factionalism had contributed to its loss.
Names like former Selangor menteri besar Muhammad Muhammad Taib have been circulating among division members. He seems to be the only acceptable candidate, but given the infighting in Umno, Muhammad faces opposition from the state Umno.
It is now up to Najib to call the shots and he cannot afford to make a mistake; any slip-up will mean that BN will not regain the seat.
As for Pakatan Rakyat, the seat belongs to PKR and if the party fields an Indian candidate, it can say goodbye to its chances immediately after nominations.
If PKR fields a Malay candidate, it will be up against great odds as PKR is not popular with the Malays there. Its 2008 election victory was more a result of a popular backlash around the country than its manifesto or the candidate’s charisma.
Moreover, Pakatan, the unregistered loose alliance, is facing a slide in fortune given Anwar Ibrahim’s sodomy case as well as allegations of backdoor conspiracy to take over Putrajaya on Sept 16 last year.
Against this background, PKR cannot leave it to lady luck to deliver the good news. In the absence of good national or local issues to play up, the party's chances may well hinge on the type of candidate it puts up.
When the Election Commission fixes the polling date on Friday, both sides of the political divide are caught in a Catch-22 position, a no-win situation.
FMT
31/03/10
For BN, going by tradition, the seat belongs to MIC but with the change in the political scenario in the aftermath of the March 2008 political tsunami, the coalition may lose the seat again.
Indian voters comprise just 19 percent of the total constituents of 63,593 while Malays make up 53 percent, Chinese (26) and others (three).
BN may risk losing the seat if an MIC candidate is fielded because Umno members may decide not to cast their ballots.
Umno members’ support for MIC plummeted after the March 2008 debacle but the party launched an aggressive drive to regain the trust and confidence of the Indian community, largely ignoring the Malays.
Thus many Umno grassroots members felt slighted and since then they have not taken MIC seriously as a partner in the ruling coalition.
“This happens at the grassroots level, not at the leadership level... when you talk about voting, you are talking about the voters at large.
“MIC must remember this... even its president (S) Samy Vellu must remember that he himself was abandoned by the Malay voters in Sungai Siput in 2008,” said an Umno member.
Thus, Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak is faced with a dilemma – if he picks an MIC candidate, he risks losing the seat; if he doesn't, he risks losing the trust of a long-time partner.
A no-win situation
It is certain that fielding an MIC candidate will make BN an underdog: it will have to fight an uphill battle to calm down disgruntled Umno division members as well as the Malay voters.
BN has another problem: if it ignores tradition and fields an Umno man for the Hulu Selangor seat, it has to pick a man acceptable to the majority of the division members there. Otherwise, it will suffer a similar fate as in past by-elections where factionalism had contributed to its loss.
Names like former Selangor menteri besar Muhammad Muhammad Taib have been circulating among division members. He seems to be the only acceptable candidate, but given the infighting in Umno, Muhammad faces opposition from the state Umno.
It is now up to Najib to call the shots and he cannot afford to make a mistake; any slip-up will mean that BN will not regain the seat.
As for Pakatan Rakyat, the seat belongs to PKR and if the party fields an Indian candidate, it can say goodbye to its chances immediately after nominations.
If PKR fields a Malay candidate, it will be up against great odds as PKR is not popular with the Malays there. Its 2008 election victory was more a result of a popular backlash around the country than its manifesto or the candidate’s charisma.
Moreover, Pakatan, the unregistered loose alliance, is facing a slide in fortune given Anwar Ibrahim’s sodomy case as well as allegations of backdoor conspiracy to take over Putrajaya on Sept 16 last year.
Against this background, PKR cannot leave it to lady luck to deliver the good news. In the absence of good national or local issues to play up, the party's chances may well hinge on the type of candidate it puts up.
When the Election Commission fixes the polling date on Friday, both sides of the political divide are caught in a Catch-22 position, a no-win situation.
FMT
31/03/10
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