Malaysia's international image damaged as foreign investors question the country rule of law

It does not take a cynic to question the timing of Anwar Ibrahim's sodomy trial, the second that Malaysia's opposition leader has had to endure.

Human rights groups raised serious concerns about the trial even before it started. Amnesty International echoed Anwar's accusation that the sodomy charges were politically motivated, as well as questioning the possibility of a fair trial. According to Amnesty, the prosecution's refusal to deliver evidence to the defence at the pre-trial stage infringed international standards and Malaysian law.

It said the failure of Malaysia's federal court to uphold the prosecution's obligation to provide access to evidence that may help exonerate him set a dangerous precedent for criminal cases and was a "recipe for unfair trials".

The lurid coverage by government-controlled media has reinforced suspicions among Anwar's supporters that the cards are stacked against their man. The Malay language Utusan Malaysia newspaper last week showed the 24-year-old male aide who says Anwar had sex with him, gesturing towards a bed. The same paper used language that was struck out of court proceedings after objections by Anwar's lawyers to a headline that read "Not willing to be sodomised again", implying that Anwar had sex with the man more than once.

The trial was suspended temporarily today as Anwar sought to remove the presiding judge because he took no action following last week's media coverage. The move, however, is unlikely to succeed and the "show" will go on.

For Anwar this is like deja vu all over again, to use the words of baseball legend Yogi Berra. Anwar was found guilty of sodomy with his wife's driver in 2000 in what was widely considered a show trial. Amid widespread international pressure by figures such as Gordon Brown and Al Gore, the supreme court in 2004 overturned the conviction, and Anwar was released.

After several years in the west as a campaigner against corruption – he strongly criticised Britain's decision to halt a major corruption investigation into BAE, its biggest arms company – Anwar returned to Malaysia, where he has harried the government ever since. He welded the disparate opposition parties into a united front that made huge inroads in parliamentary elections in March 2008, dramatically redrawing the political landscape. The governing coalition led by the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) – Malaysia's largest political party and the dominant force in the country's politics since independence from Britain in 1957 – saw its two-thirds majority evaporate. By contrast, the opposition parties saw their seats in the 222-member parliament jump to 82 from 19.

The big opposition gains rattled the government. Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was eased out as prime minister to make way for Najib Razak, who promised an ambitious reform programme.

Anwar's political comeback has hit some bumps along the way. His prediction that his coalition would take power in September 2008 by persuading MPs from the government coalition smacked of hubris and the takeover failed to materialise. But it seemed only a question of time before the opposition would break Umno's 50-year political monopoly.

Then came new charges, when Saiful Bukhari Azlan accused Anwar of sodomising him, a charge that carries a prison sentence of 20 years in Malaysia, even between consenting adults. Anwar, who is married with six children, has already pleaded not guilty to the charge.

The timing of the trial is politically convenient for the government, forcing Anwar to concentrate on his trial in the high court and blunting his political momentum. The trial is taking place against a backdrop of political uncertainty in Malaysia, with Umno's system of racial preferences increasingly under strain.

Anwar offers a different vision for Malaysia, wanting to wean the country away from a policy of positive discrimination that for the past 30 years has ensured Malays dominate the country's politics, but which has been criticised for encouraging corruption and cronyism. As Malays form a majority, Anwar's strategy is risky, but it appeals to the country's substantial ethnic Chinese and Indian voters who have largely deserted the multi-ethnic governing coalition.

The government has tried to tar Anwar as "traitor" to his race in the sort of rhetoric that is anathema to the former deputy prime minister. A strong proponent of a dialogue rather than a clash of civilisations, Anwar recently defended the use of the word "Allah" by Malaysia's Christian community, an issue that has inflamed tensions between the country's Muslims and Christians. The op-ed article in the Wall Street Journal reflects Anwar's worldview of tolerance and inclusivity at a time when religious sentiments in Malaysia are becoming increasingly brittle.

Much hangs on this trial. Should Anwar be discredited, the government may feel more confident of holding on to power in elections that must be held by 2013. But there are risks for Umno as well. Malaysia's international image could be damaged as foreign investors question the country rule of law – Malaysia saw the third-biggest outflow of portfolio investment of any emerging market in 2009. As for rising tension between Malaysia's different communities, it would be a cruel irony for Malaysia if the politician who seems the most capable of calming these tensions is sidelined.

29/06/10

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