NO HOLDS BARRED
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Every general election and by-election we hear both sides of the political divide claiming that it is going to win. But in an election there is only one winner. There is no prize for number two, or even number three in a three-corner contest.
So who is going to win the Sarawak state election this Saturday? Both Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional claim it is going to win. Both are confident of victory.
In reality no one knows -- not even the strategists and intelligence community whether it is the Special Branch or Military Intelligence. At best it is an educated guess, but a guess nevertheless.
The Malays always say: the ball is round. Basically, it means that the ball can roll either way and sometimes it is luck rather than skill that determines who wins the game.
Barisan Nasional hopes to win with money (ang pows or red packets) distributed to the voters. They hope that, as usual, they can buy the votes. But they are really not sure. They are sure that the voters will take the red packets. But whether they will vote for Barisan Nasional after taking the money is left to be seen.
In Kelantan, the voters took the money but voted for the opposition. And since the East Malaysians in Sabah and Sarawak have the same mentality as the Kelantanese (meaning that are very nationalistic/regionalistic in attitude), will they do what the Kelantanese do (take the money but vote opposition)? Neither Barisan Nasional nor Pakatan Rakyat knows this yet. They will only know come the evening of Saturday, 16th April 2011.
The second Barisan Nasional weapon is to promise the voters development. Third is to whack Anwar Ibrahim on the porn video issue. But neither promises of development nor the Anwar porn video mean anything to the Sarawak voters.
Let us take a walk down memory lane to 1990 in Kelantan. In 1990, the Kelantanese were fed up with Mohammed Yaacob, the 11th Menteri Besar of Kelantan (1978-1990). The Kelantanese wanted him out.
Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad sent Tun Daim Zainuddin to Kota Bharu to talk to Mohamed Yaacob to try to convince him to step down. But he refused to step down. He wanted to contest one last time: his last tango.
So, to kick out Mohammed Yaacob, the Kelantanese had to kick out Umno. And that is what they did. They kicked out Umno in 1990 and Kelantan has been under the opposition ever since.
In 1999, in Terengganu, the people wanted Wan Mokhtar Ahmad out. He had been Menteri Besar for 25 years since 1974 (even earlier and longer than Mohammed Yaacob of Kelantan).
Again the Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir, advised him to step down but he refused. He also wanted to contest one last term, his last tango, just like Mohammed Yaacob of Kelantan.
On the way to filing his nomination papers he slipped and fell on the steps of the nomination centre. The Chinese of Kemaman, the second largest Chinese community in Terengganu, said that this was a bad omen: bad Fungshui.
True enough, not only did Wan Mokhtar fall but the entire Umno government. Unfortunately, unlike in Kelantan, the opposition held Terengganu for just one term: due to its own blunders.
As I said, the people of East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) are just like the people of the East Coast of West Malaysia (Terengganu and Kelantan). They are fiercely anti-federal (they want self-determination), extremely regionalistic (the state comes first), and are stubborn like hell (their machete will be drawn super-fast if you insult them). So will the people of Sarawak do what the people of Kelantan did in 1990 and the people of Terengganu in 1999?
I really don’t know but in five days’ time we will all know the answer to this question.
That was Kelantan in 1990 and Terengganu in 1999. Now let us fast forward to the 2004 and 2008 general elections.
Dr Mahathir knew that the people wanted him out. If he had stayed on and led Barisan Nasional in the 2004 general election then the opposition would have made great gains. So, four months before the 2004 general election, he handed over power to his successor, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi -- and because of that Barisan Nasional was saved and in the 2004 general election it performed its best ever in the history of Malaysian elections.
If Dr Mahathir had stayed on, then the March 2008 opposition success would have been in March 2004 instead.
But honeymoons last only 100 days and by 2008 the people got tired of Abdullah Badawi. If he had resigned and had handed over the government to his successor then the 2008 election result may have been very different.
In 2008, the people voted for the opposition not because they loved the opposition but because they hated Umno (meaning also Barisan Nasional). So it was ABU (Anything But Umno or Asal Bukan Umno).
I remember the voters telling me that they did not even know whom they voted for. They just ticked the opposition party symbol -- never mind whether it was PKR, DAP or PAS just as long as it is not Barisan Nasional. Some even said they would vote for a donkey or a monkey just as long as it carries the opposition logo.
That was the 2008 sentiment. And it dovetailed with Kelantan in 1990 and Terengganu in 1999. Is this what we are going to see in Sarawak in 2011?
The Sarawakians may take the money. They may not even care about promises of development and the Anwar Ibrahim porn video. But do they hate Taib enough to want to kick out Barisan Nasional just so that Taib can be kicked out?
Political scientists and analysts will be talking about the 2011 Sarawak state election for a long time to come. Sarawak will be quoted as the example of what to do and what not to do in an election. The Sarawak state election result will also determine whether the next general election will be held soon or will be delayed.
But why did they announce that Baru Bian is going to be the next Chief Minister of Sarawak if Pakatan Rakyat gets to form the next state government? Is this a plus point or will it in fact be counter-productive.? Is this what the majority want or will they now reject Pakatan Rakyat just to deny Baru Bian the job of Chief Minister of Sarawak?
I don’t know enough about the sentiments of Sarawakians towards Baru Bian to make an assessment of this issue. I just hope that Pakatan Rakyat has done its homework and that it knows what it is doing. If not then this may backfire on the opposition.
PKR is confident of winning 15 seats in the Sarawak state assembly. It is possible that DAP can win at least 12 seats. That makes 27 seats, leaving 44 seats not under Pakatan Rakyat. How many seats can SNAP win and will SNAP align itself to Pakatan Rakyat or Barisan Nasional?
Pakatan Rakyat says that SNAP is a Barisan Nasional Trojan horse. SNAP says it wants to see the end of Barisan Nasional rule in Sarawak. Which is the truth?
I suppose we shall have to wait till 16th April 2011 to see what is going to happen and whether SNAP wins any seats and whether it aligns itself to Pakatan Rakyat or Barisan Nasional.
Say, SNAP wins eight seats and it aligns itself to Pakatan Rakyat. This would give Pakatan Rakyat 35 seats (if DAP wins 12 and PKR 15 or vice versa), leaving Barisan Nasional with only 36 seats (a one-seat majority in the Sarawak state assembly).
If this happens there may be a few crossovers from Barisan Nasional and with these crossovers Pakatan Rakyat will be the new Sarawak state government.
Of course, if SNAP is wiped out then the entire thing becomes purely academic. But if SNAP does win eight seats or so, then it becomes the kingmaker. But which ‘king’ will they put on the Sarawak ‘throne’?
Interesting isn’t it?
It is still not too late for an electoral pact of sorts to be hammered out. But can SNAP and Pakatan Rakyat put their massive egos aside for the sake of seeing change in Sarawak?
At the moment that does not seem likely. Politicians have massive egos and they all imagine themselves as God’s gift to mankind. They do not really fight for the people. They fight for personal power and glory. This is the problem with politicians.
And because of this Barisan Nasional may be able to retain Sarawak. The only question would be: will it be with or without a two-thirds majority in the Sarawak state assembly?
To retain its two-thirds majority, Barisan Nasional needs to win at least 48 seats, leaving Pakatan Rakyat with only 23 seats. But if DAP wins 12 seats (or even 15) and PKR another 15 (or even just 12), then Barisan Nasional will rule without a two-thirds majority.
And, if they play their cards right, this is very possible. The key word: if they play their cards right. But playing the cards right and massive egos do not make compatible bedfellows.
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