The election results have confirmed some analyses earlier. The Sarawak BN has three magic weapons to secure its power in the state:
Firstly, Malay constituencies are very steady. Although Pakatan Rakyat has highlighted the retirement issue of Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud, the PBB remains a protective umbrella of the Malays and the Melanaus. The PBB won all 35 seats contested and 27 Malay constituencies among them have made significant contributions.
Pakatan Rakyat will not be able to win the state power if it does not weaken the influence of the PBB, which is enjoying the same status as Umno of the peninsula in Sarawak. Also, PAS’s emphasis on religious issues does not contribute much in Sarawak.
Secondly, Bumiputera voters continue supporting the BN. There are 38 constituencies, or 53.52 per cent of the total seats, with Bumiputeras in the majority. If the Ibans do not wish to change, inland constituencies will then remain a stronghold of the BN.
Thirdly, there are internal struggles within the alternative coalition. There were multiple-cornered fights in 44 constituencies. Even though the total votes of the PKR and SNAP were still less than the votes gained by the BN, the momentum and organisational strength would be much stronger if they had combined to fight against the BN.
SNAP competed for 26 seats but it gained only 15,836 votes in total, showing that its glorious days are over. It should be dissolved and join Pakatan Rakyat.
Of course, Pakatan Rakyat still gained something from the state election. In addition to the big victory of the DAP, the two Bumiputera constituencies won by the PKR have also proven that the party has finally got a foothold in Bumiputera areas.
The PKR gained over 7,000 Iban votes and won the Krian and Ba’Kelalan with 95.76 per cent and 91.38 per cent of Bumiputera votes respectively. Although it is a just a little progress, it is still a starting point.
In terms of votes, the BN gained 372,379 votes or 54.7 per cent while Pakatan Rakyat gained 261,493 votes or 38.4 per cent. The BN won a two-thirds majority due to demarcation factors and Pakatan Rakyat gained only 21 per cent of seats. However, it should be a reminder to BN that 38 per cent of the voters voted for the alternative coalition.
Just like Gerakan which lost Penang because of the lack of innovationy, the only way out for the SUPP will be to reform and restructure.
There are three issues to be concerned after the Sarawak state election, namely when Taib will step down, the relations between Sarawak and the central government and whether a snap general election will be held.
If Taib does not honour the commitment to retire in two years, his retirement will still be an issue in the next election. If he steps down, would Umno enter Sarawak? It was a bit unusual for Taib to be sworn in immediately after the election results were announced.
A snap general election is expected after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has overcome the challenge of the Sarawak state election as the national economy for the next half year is still uncertain. Although Pakatan Rakyat has gained twice as many seats in the state, it is expected to win only a few more seats in the next general election and therefore, it should not be a concern.
The battle is over for now. Pakatan Rakyat has not yet been sunk. There are more interesting days ahead! — mysinchew.com
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