Bad math and dirty politics: Umno's election strategy set to backfire

Bad math and dirty politics: Umno's election strategy set to backfire
Recently, the DAP has come in for criticism that it was slow to reform and remained trapped in its own age-old politics. Accusations it was dragging its feet to become more inclusive in its lineup to greater Malay and Indian representation were met with resistance, and some die-hard DAP supporters were even quick to rebut and condemn the allegations as a racial slur against DAP.

Lately, Umno vice-president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi 'exposed' DAP’s intention to field Malay candidates in various constituencies as being just a ploy to fool the Malays. He warned them not to be taken in by the party's sinister deception. He said DAP was now identifying suitable Malays to contest seats in states like Perak, Melaka and Negeri Sembilan, so that eventually a DAP menteri besar could be sworn in.

"We've managed to sniff out the plan which is concocted without the knowledge of PAS and PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat). I'd like to remind PAS and PKR not to become a mere tool of the DAP," Bernama had reported Zahid as saying.

Then next in line was Chief Minister of Malacca, Ali Rustam, who also accused DAP of wanting to field Malay candidates and described it as a clever ploy. But it would not work, said Ali. He also dared DAP to contest in Chinese areas without fielding any Malay candidates. Furthermore, Ali tried to drive a wedge between DAP and its Pakatan partners PKR and PAS. According to him, DAP had every intention to field its own Malay candidates at the expense of, and without consulting, PAS and PKR who may be fielding candidates of their own in the same constituencies.

Another Umno leader, Deputy Education Minister Puad Zakaria, also lost no time in the onslaught against the Chinese-dominated DAP. He said the party was waging a psychological warfare against Umno. When asked how Umno could deal with the psychological attacks, Puad would only say DAP was the mastermind while PKR had evil objectives. UMNO would soon expose both these parties.

Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin also called DAP a chauvinist party, which cared for nothing but to become the next government at the expense of BN.

The biggest casualties - the non-Malay components

So on and on, the concurrent attacks against DAP and PKR, especially Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, continue unabated. At the same time, UMNO continues to throw lures to PAS, urging a merger even though PAS has said 'NO' in no undertain terms.

Every BN politician worth his salt seems to be coming out with statements of his or her own. Almost all of them warn of the danger of voting in any of the Pakatan Rakyats parties.

There is no doubt that the General Election is drawing closer. Every statement made is to reinforce each day the perception they wish to create - that it would be folly to vote for Pakatan. Their intention is also to win the hearts of fence sitters, and to slander their Pakatan rivals.

What is surprising is, why are they bringing out racial and religious issues as well? All the past attempts by radical NGO’s to generate controversies has been detrimental to 1Malaysia, and has caused the non-Malays to distance themselves from BN.

Religious issues like the Christian conspiracy only serve to make the Christians more distrustful of BN. Anyone can tell that such an issue does not benefit BN in the long run.

In the past, many of the ruling coalition's victories were won by the strength of the non-Malay vote. But now, without doubt, BN component parties would be the biggest casualties in the next election.

Crunching the numbers

Is the latest and somewhat confused strategy shown by the BN the result of internal post-mortems of the 2008 general election? Did the results confirm that all non-Malays have switched support to the Opposition? Is this why the Government continues to direct their anger at the non-Malays?

If not, then why does BN allow or even provoke these racial and religious controversies and allow them to continue raging in this country? By isolating the non-Malay minority, which accounts for 40 per cent of this country, what can BN hope to gain?

Some pundits say the strategy is to rally the Malays to unite and back the BN government. Yes, 60 per cent is a lot and a pretty safe number for BN to consolidate its power.

Then, there are those who say that even if all the Malays voted for BN, it will also not give BN the two-thirds majority mandate it hungers for. So why continue to play the race and religion card, when it is clearly of no benefit to BN?

But is this really so? Due to gerrymandering, there are few seats where the Malay population is not the largest. If UMNO can cannibalise the Malay electorate from PAS and PKR through its ultra-Malay policies, then it does not need the non-Malays after all. No wonder, Perkasa and Pembela are flourishing.

Bad math and dirty politics

There is also talk that BN is in consultations with all three political parties in the Pakatan for a possible merger.

Now this is dubious news and mostly like reverse psy-war to further divide Pakatan. The only party UMNO is keen on is PAS and it has unashamedly chased after the Islamist party. But best of all is the reply from Spiritual Adviser Nik Aziz, 'yes, we will come over to BN but only if PKR and DAP can come along'. There was stony silence from the BN side!

So, without any break-through in sight, BN is becoming more desperate by the day as the GE draws nearer. Counting solely on Malay power to support its quest in the GE-13, UMNO is hoping that it may be able to fall back on the strength of the majority.

And even though the Malays are now split between itself, PAS and PKR and to a much smaller extent, DAP, there is basically just a swing of between 5 to 7 per cent of Malay votes needed to guarantee victory.

And this is what UMNO is eyeing. The non-Malay votes can go to Pakatan but as long as it is compensated by Malay votes from PAS, PKR and fence-sitters, it will still win the seat.

Finally, to be sure it covers all sides, UMNO has other cards up its sleeve. Firstly, there is a possibility of PKR being deregistered come June 9. Then, Batu MP Tian Chua stands to lose his parliamentary seat. Anwar's sodomy trial will also be heard in June and he may be thrown into jail again. Not to mention the sex video in which the police can anytime - for strange reasons of their own - make disgraceful statements like 'it looks like Anwar' to further sway the Malay mood.

Meanwhile, the PAS leadership has to keep watching out for all the UMNO marriage proposals and prevent them from lighting a fire among its members, while DAP has to stay on alert for the next conspiracy UMNO stirs up against it.

How dirty is the face of Politics in this country?

But has UMNO counted the odds properly? Has not Prime Minister Najib Razak embarked on too risky a bet?

The Malay ground doesn't seem so convinced that he is the right man to lead UMNO and the country. Thanks to the sex video - the straw that broke the camel's back - many are starting to think that Pakatan should be given a chance to clean up the system.

If Anwar, PKR and PAS don't protect the Malays, then the community will boot them out in GE-14. That is what many Malays are starting to think now.

Malaysia Chronicle

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