Former Umno strongman Kadir Sheikh Fadzir has launched his new party, but is he merely babysitting it for Kelantan prince?
Months
of speculation on the next move of former Umno minister and former MP
for Kulim Bandar Baru, Abdul Kadir Sheikh Fadzir, comes to an end
yesterday as he formed a new party, Parti Ikatan Bangsa Malaysia
(Ikatan).
Everyone thought that the flamboyant Umno politician has retired for
good when he was dropped as the candidate for the Kulim Bandar Baru
parliamentary seat in Kedah in the 2008 general election.
The seat was then given to his younger brother Abd Aziz but he lost
it to PKR candidate Zulkifli Noordin. Zulkifli eventually became a thorn
in the flesh for PKR and later left the party.
In recent months, Kadir became a newsmaker once again when he came
out in the open to criticise Umno and joined together with Tengku
Razaleigh Hamzah to form a new NGO, Angkatan Amanah Merdeka (Amanah).
Kadir left Umno in March and was expected to join one of the Pakatan
Rakyat parties but now has announced the formation of a new political
party. It is also speculated that Kadir could be the new Pakatan
candidate for Kulim Bandar Baru.
With the formation of a new party, Kadir has once against raised
speculations that he is forming the new party and “parking” it for
Tengku Razaleigh in the event the latter decides to leave Umno.
Tengku Razaleigh’s dilemma
During the recent visit of Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak to
Kelantan, Tengku Razaleigh, popularly known as Ku Li, was prominently
featured with him in the mainstream media suggesting that both of them
enjoyed a good relationship.
However, as the general election nears, Umno circles are eagerly
waiting whether Tengku Razaleigh would be fielded again for the Gua
Musang seat in Kelantan which he has held for decades, both when he was
in Umno or the opposition.
Najib is expected to retain Tengku Razaleigh as the Umno candidate
for Gua Musang and Tengku Razaleigh himself has indicated that he would
continue with Umno and has no intention of leaving the party.
At the same time, it is also clear that Tengku Razaleigh could easily
win Gua Musang whether he is in Umno or not as he has proven in several
general elections before.
In the general election held in 1990 and 1995, Tengku Razaleigh
comfortably retained Gua Musang even as a candidate from Semangat 46,
then joining with PAS.
Najib faces a dilemma when it comes to Tengku Razaleigh. If he drops
him as a candidate, it is as good as a seat lost for Umno since Tengku
Razaleigh would contest as an independent and even PKR and PAS may
support him.
If Najib retains Tengku Razaleigh, there is a fear among Umno circles
that Tengku Razaleigh may lead a faction from Umno to support Pakatan
to form the next federal government.
If the results of the 13th general election lead to a hung
Parliament, then Tengku Razaleigh, as an elected MP, may play a crucial
role in deciding which political group should form the next federal
government.
Being a royalty himself, his influence among the rulers would also be a crucial factor in deciding the next federal government.
If Tengku Razaleigh continues with Umno, Najib would also have
another worry – would Tengku Razaleigh lead a campaign for the ouster of
Najib in the event Umno loses badly in the general election?
It is almost a certainty that Najib would face the same fate as
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the event he is unable to win the general
election with a comfortable majority.
In such an event, Muhyiddin Yassin’s supporters are expected to push
out Najib citing his failures so that Muhyiddin would be able to take
over as prime minister and Umno president, a scenario where Tengku
Razaleigh would be able to play a prominent role, given the fact that he
still wields considerable support within Umno’s rank and file.
Whether Kadir would be able to get the necessary approval for the
registration of his party before the general election is doubtful, but
it is clear that Tengku Razaleigh is preparing for eventualities in case
he is dropped as the Umno candidate for Gua Musang.
If he is dropped, then he may lead a faction to exit from Umno to
embrace Kadir’s new party and may contest in Gua Musang under the new
party’s ticket and possibly be supported by Pakatan.
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