Umno could end up destroyed: Analysts

DR Mahathir's unexpected decision to quit the party has raised questions on the future of Malay politics.

Some political analysts say Dr Mahathir's move could result in a level of chaos and complexity within the party and Barisan Nasional (BN) although it may not adversely affect national stability and the Government.

Prof Dr Ahmad Atory Hussein from the Law and Public Administration Faculty of Universiti Utara Malaysia, said whatever the real reasons for Dr Mahathir's decision to quit Umno, it could not be taken lightly by the party leadership and government.

"Whether his decsion to quit the party was because he was hurt that his views were no longer respected or be wanted the members to make a bold move towards the top leadership, to me the decision itself would have a big impact on Umno and the country.

"The effect on Umno is obvious as Tun (Dr Mahathir) still has many loyal supporters. Imagine if all of them, although they are ordinary members, follow his action. I think Umno could be destroyed," he said.

Ahmad Atory said: "We must remember that Tun helmed the country for 22 years and he has contributed a lot though a controversial figure. He is respected by many foreign leaders and suddenly he quit the party which he had led for many years before.

"Surely this will raise many questions as to why it happened. Moreover the ruling coalition did badly in the recent general election. They (foreigners) could conclude that politically, Malaysia is no longer that stable."

He believed the former prime minister had strong reasons to make that decision although the public were made to understand that he was disappointed with Abdullah's leadership.

"Why didn't Tun wait for the transfer of power?" he asked, referring to Abdullah having given the assurance that he would one day hand over the reins of government to his deputy, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

"Or could there have been new incidents which only Tun knows about that caused him to make that bold decision?"

Ahmad Atory summed up Dr Mahathir's decision as something very serious in Umno which must quickly be dealt with.

"My advice is, if they love the party, they (Abdullah and Dr Mahathir) must meet face-to-face. It's not wrong for Pak Lah (Abdullah) to go and see Tun. As the saying goes, 'a snake that slithers on the tree root does not lose its venom' (which means that it doesn't hurt to be humble)."

He said the friction between the two was due to Dr Mahathir's continuous criticism of Abdullah's administration which had gradually "killed" the Prime Minister's credibility.

"And today, Tun decided to quit the party. Although Pak Lah will not bow to pressure from Tun to step down, it would nonetheless encourage party members to speak out," he added.

Meanwhile, Yayasan Strategik Sosial executive director Datuk Dr Denison Jayasooria said as an elder statesman, Dr Mahathir should facilitate strengthening of the party instead of adding to its troubles.

"His (Dr Mahathir) action has a broader impact as a whole. Umno is a stabilising factor for BN. As a past president, he should have sought support from Umno members if he wanted to make the change, not create further chaos.

"But he has the freedom of opinion and choice," he said.

"However, Dr Mahathir's move may be better for Abdullah in the long run.

By resigning, it shows he (Dr Mahathir) does not have enough support from within Umno to make the change. This is the time for Abdullah to deliver his promises and regain ground for the 13th general election.

"I would like to wish Abdullah all the best and to hold firm in this crisis.

He has to remember that he still has the support of the majority of the parliamentarians. Don't be distracted by Dr Mahathir's political manoeuvring," he reminded.

Kolej Yayasan Melaka rector Datuk Ramlah Adam said although Dr Mahathir was an expert in national administration and an internationally renowned individual with charisma, he was no longer part of the current government.

Bernama