KUALA LUMPUR: Parti Keadilan Rakyat advisor Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim upped the ante Thursday, taking the battle for his political survival to a higher level.
The former deputy prime minister had his wife, PKR president Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, vacate her parliamentary seat in the opposition stronghold of Permatang Pauh in Penang.
Political analysts contacted by Bernama regarded the opposition leader's move as one made "at the right time, at the right place" to go back to his former seat of Permatang Pauh.
"Anwar began his political career in Permatang Pauh. He also fell when he was still the Permatang Pauh MP in 1998. It looks like he wants to make a comeback, contesting the Permatang Pauh seat," said Penang-based political analyst Datuk Seah Chee Kim.
Seah said Azizah had only held the seat "on behalf of Anwar" since 1998 to ensure his continued political survival and her decision to relinquish her position was "not surprising at all."
However, there is a catch on Azizah concerning her political future; Article 48 (6) of the Federal Constitution states that any MP who resigns will be disqualified for five years from the date of resignation. This would mean that if Anwar is arrested and convicted, both husband and wife would be ineligible to contest at least in the next general election.
"If Anwar had decided to go for any other seats apart from Permatang Pauh, people would have accused him of building a political dynasty with his wife and daugther, Nurul Izzah who is already an MP (Lembah Pantai).
"There is no alternative for him. He has to go for Permatang Pauh. Moreover, Wan Azizah had announced that she was only a temporary opposition leader after the March general election," he added.
Seah said that with the current political situation, the people were already doubtful that Anwar could make an effective political comeback, taking in account the looming sodomy charge levelled against him by a former aide.
"The way I look at it, it would tone down the sodomy talk if he won the election. Moreover since 1992, people in Permatang Pauh have been supporting him and his wife," he said, adding that Anwar was likely to use the high fuel price and inflation and the sodomy charge against him in his campaign at the by-election.
"It would also tone down the Umno-PAS talks which have the potential to destablise Pakatan Rakyat, the opposition front," he added.
Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun felt that Anwar's latest move would create a new political scenario in the country, especially when the seasoned politician goes to Parliament, if he win the Permatang Pauh seat.
He drew comparision with the current Taiwanese president, Ma Ying Jeou, when he was still an opposition leader in the Taiwan Parliament.
"When Ma was the chairman of the Koumintang Party (KMT), he made a bold decision by annoucing that he would be running for president when the Taiwan government, which was controlled by the Green party, charged him with corruption.
"The day he was charged, he announced he was running for president. Similarly, when rumours abound that Anwar would be charged (for sodomy), he announced that he would contest the Permatang Pauh seat," he said.
Dr Oh said that despite the bold move by Anwar, his political fate still depended on the voters of Permatang Pauh as " if people do not believe he is involved in sodomy, then he would win and if not, he would have a rough ride".
"This is not something new. It is an old trick which is improvised," said Dr Oh.
Another political analyst, Datuk Prof Shamsul Amri, described Anwar's latest move as a "desperate one".
First, he said, Anwar was taking advantage of his present popularity after a series of cross-country political campaigns in an effort to sidetrack the authorities from the sodomy investigations.
"Why now, all of a sudden, Anwar is taking advantage?. If he is arrested, then he can go around and say that the Barisan Nasional is trying to stop him from contesting and coming into Parliament," he added.
Prof Shamsul said this could be a political ploy on the part of Anwar after the opposition leader realised that he could not get 24 BN MPs to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat and form the next government.
"So, by contesting in the safe seat, which he would likely win, he can say the crossover is not a priority as he is already the opposition leader and taking over the government would happen at the next election.
"If the takeover does not materialise, at least he has substantial standing, which is to officially lead the opposition front in Parliament," he said.
Lastly, Prof Shamsul said, Anwar picked the safe Permatang Pauh seat knowing well that the BN election machinery would be going full steam in any other constituency.
Previously, Anwar had openly told the people that he was considering contesting several seats, including Bandar Tun Razak in Kuala Lumpur and Kulim Bandar Baharu in Kedah.
Shamsul said Anwar did not want to risk contesting seats which did not guarantee a win.
"It is a fact that it is a disadvantage for the opposition front to face any by-election unless in a seat where they are assured of winning. For the BN to beat him in Permatang Pauh, it is very tough," the political analyst summed up.
Wan Azizah resigned as Permatang Pauh MP with immediate effect to give way to Anwar to contest for the seat in a by-election.
Alan Ting
Bernama
01/08/08
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