De facto Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's eye was on September, by then he expected to have collected enough defections from the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition for the opposition to rule for the first time in Malaysia's 50-year national history.If accomplished, it would have capped off one of the greatest political comebacks in this region's modern history. Instead, with the new allegations of sodomy, the same charges that led to Anwar's political downfall 10 years ago while a high-ranking United Malays Nasional Organization stalwart, his political career could once again be on the brink of dissolution.
Anwar insisted all along that the sodomy, as well as corruption, charges brought against him were trumped up and he was released from prison when the sodomy conviction was overturned in 2004. Sodomy is punishable by 20 years of imprisonment in majority Muslim Malaysia.
Anwar called the latest sodomy allegation made on Saturday by his 23-year-old political aide a 'total fabrication', adding that 'these actions are being repeated today to undermine the forces of reform and renewal which were unleashed in the March 2008 elections'.
In that election, a loose coalition of parties led by Anwar won an unprecedented 82 seats in the 222-member parliament and control of five of the national federation's 13 states. On Sunday, Anwar took refuge at the Turkish Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, claiming that 'certain agents' in the BN had 'initiated plots' to assassinate him.
He reportedly received offers of protection from several embassies though chose the Turkish Embassy because of his close ties to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Malaysia's Foreign Minister Rais Yatim on Monday said Turkey was out of diplomatic bounds in giving sanctuary to Anwar, contending the invitation represented interference in Malaysia's internal affairs.
Malaysia's embattled Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi was quoted saying there was no governmental intent 'to cause [Anwar] trouble or harass him or raise such issues to undermine him'. But the timing of the allegation and the police investigation now underway are sure to raise doubts.
Since its electoral setback in March, the UMNO-led government has been fighting for survival and some of its biggest names, including Abdullah himself, find themselves under intense opposition and new media scrutiny. The premier has been under pressure to step down since the March election setback, a call that was ratcheted up two weeks ago from within his own ranks when a BN component party from the state of Sabah announced, but never followed up, a no-confidence motion against him.
Meanwhile, Abdullah's deputy and heir-apparent, Najib Razak, finds himself embroiled in a legal controversy over the murder of a Mongolian interpreter, creating a succession crisis inside the BN at a crucial political juncture. Last week Raja Petra, editor of the popular web portal Malaysia Today, said he had evidence linking Najib's wife to the murder scene, adding to the speculation that has swirled over the deputy premier's possible role in the 2006 murder.
That speculation was fueled when his confidant Abdul Razak Baginda and two elite bodyguards assigned under Najib were charged in connection with the crime. Najib has consistently denied any connection to the murder. But the speculation has drawn more scrutiny to Najib's dealings, most notably three defense deals made in his capacity as defense minister. Anwar claimed last year that the deals had reaped at least US$300 million for Najib and his cronies; Najib brushed off the corruption allegations, saying, 'I don't react to Anwar.'
Meanwhile, Malaysia's former strongman Mahathir Mohamad is under investigation for tampering with judicial appointments during the late 1980s, and the newly emboldened opposition led by Anwar, the same man Mahathir once fired and had jailed, is threatening if elevated to power to expose other abuses during his 22-year rule.
Anwar had planned for some time to file a report against the inspector general of police and attorney general on grounds that they manufactured evidence against him in 1998. An aide to Anwar (not the one who was allegedly sodomized) told this correspondent that the latest accusation could be a pre-emptive attack against Anwar.
It's still premature to say whether Anwar is being framed and if so which precise political forces are attempting to derail his drive to power. Opposition leaders have long pointed to the questionable integrity of the BN and its appendages, including the police and judiciary, when it comes to handling evidence and pursuing justice. Police reform is a pressing issue among the general public, one that Abdullah earlier vowed to address but then backed off.
If the BN is up to more dirty politicking - or 'political murder' as Anwar's wife described the latest sodomy accusation - it is surely taking a big and potentially ill-timed political risk that a second charge of sodomy against Anwar will sway the court of public opinion against the opposition icon. There is less blind allegiance to the ruling UMNO party than it held a decade ago, with the previously reticent public taking to the streets in sizeable numbers several times in the last year calling variously for greater democracy and official accountability.
The shifting political currents were also apparent in March, when the combined opposition consisting of the Islamic party known by the acronym PAS, the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party and Anwar's People's Justice Party bagged nearly 50% of the popular vote. And yet the public is still deeply divided over Anwar.
Many Muslim Malays see him as a traitor of the Malay cause; Anwar, an ethnic Malay himself, has promised to end a positive discrimination policy favoring the Malays, who make up 55% of the population, and his People's Justice Party is overtly a pluralist party, which in Malaysia's racially divided political landscape is often met with suspicion.
Some Indians and Chinese, who combined represent roughly 40% of the population and overwhelmingly voted for opposition parties at the March polls, suspect that beneath Anwar's rhetoric of liberty and democracy he is true to his previous incarnation as a strident Islamic youth leader and is still a staunch Muslim conservative intent on giving Islam a more prominent role in this ethnically polarized country. Many also remember the pro-Malay policies he introduced as an UMNO-appointed education minister.
By going after Anwar the UMNO could avoid addressing the most volatile political issues here: race and race-based discrimination. Chinese and Indian political groups cannot accuse perceived framers of the allegations of targeting one of their own, while many Malays aren't inclined to spring to the defense of the often-polarizing Anwar.
The test now is whether Malaysians will transcend race to demand justice and a continuation of the reform movement the March elections have engendered, or whether they will abandon Anwar on the grounds that he has moved to challenge the political status quo.
By and large Malaysians responded the latter way after his conviction 10 years ago. This was due to popular sentiments that he was too ambitious and misguidedly challenged Mahathir, and regardless of the unjust tactics used by the then premier to undermine a political ally-turned-opponent.
That episode divided the country and sullied its international reputation, particularly among Western democracies. Depending on whether the police decide to file formal charges after an investigation, the new sodomy charges against Anwar threaten to do the same, particularly considering they come as his political star is once again firmly on the rise.
They could also cause unforeseen political turmoil. On Monday a crowd of 20,000 opposition supporters in the town of Ipoh, where Anwar was supposed to speak, spoke out against the sodomy allegation. Anwar over the weekend urged his supporters to remain 'calm but firm', but also said 'Enough is enough, we will fight it out.' When Asia Times Online went to press Anwar had not yet been arrested.
Meanwhile, the federal police chief of criminal investigations told a news conference, 'We want to establish the allegation first to see whether there is truth or not. We will conduct a thorough investigation and be fair to both sides.'
Abdullah, for his part, said that it is 'common for an accused person' to claim his or her innocence, read by some as a less-than-ringing endorsement of the basic legal principle of innocent until proven guilty.
(Ioannis Gatsiounis is a frequent contributor to Asia Times Online based in Malaysia. His new book on the pivotal events before and after Malaysia's March elections that promise to shape its future, Beyond the Veneer, has just been published by Monsoon Books).
Malaysia Sun
02/07/08
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