Anwar plays a waiting game in Malaysia

PENANG - Malaysia's political opposition insists its plan to topple Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's government is still on track, as doubts emerge about the credibility of those claims after it missed two self-set deadlines for ushering in political change.

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim had set September 16, Malaysia's national day, as the deadline for his People's Alliance coalition to take over the federal government through parliamentary defections to his camp. When that deadline passed, with Anwar claiming he had the required number of parliamentary defections secured, he set a new September 23 deadline for Abdullah to call an emergency sitting of parliament to hold a no-confidence motion he claimed would bring down the government.

Abdullah has ridiculed those calls and refused Anwar's request to meet so that the latter can show him a purported list of parliamentarians who have committed to leave the coalition government and join forces with the opposition. Anwar has repeatedly told the press that his alliance has the minimum 31 defections he needs to secure a simple majority in parliament, though he has declined to reveal the names of the turncoat parliamentarians. The only snag, from his perspective, is that Abdullah will delay reconvening the legislature to debate a no-confidence motion on his rule.

The political uncertainty is starting to take a toll on the economy and investor confidence. Foreign direct investment flows had already turned negative for 2007 for the first time in the country's 50-year history, according to the 2008 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report, released this week. Inflation hit a 27-year high of 8.5% in August, adding fuel to the population's discontent with the United Malays Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led government.

Abdullah has repeatedly accused Anwar of causing instability and undermining the economy. Anwar has countered that the economic problems stem from Abdullah's failure to introduce meaningful economic reforms.

Anwar now needs to tread a delicate constitutional line if he wants to avoid giving an already jittery ruling coalition a pretext for striking back through a more forceful crackdown. This month, an opposition politician, a journalist and an anti-government blogger were all detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA), which allows for indefinite detention without trial.

The opposition leader is now believed to have two political options: seek an audience with the Agong, Malaysia's paramount constitutional monarch, or wait for parliament to reconvene as scheduled from its recess on October 13. Finding that his path to power is strewn with obstacles, Anwar has not committed to any new deadlines for a change in government. The state-influenced mainstream media have ridiculed the passing of his previous deadlines and some feel those missed marks have damaged his credibility.

Others more sympathetic to the opposition charge point out that it will not be easy to dislodge the UMNO-led coalition, which has held power for 51 years, during which time it has blurred the lines between party and government. Anwar's proponents say that September 16 heralded the beginning of a political transition that eventually will lead to UMNO's demise.

Intra-party turmoil
Two crucial dates now loom: October 9, when regional divisions of UMNO begin to nominate candidates for top party posts that will be up for grabs during the party's December internal elections, and October 13, when parliament is scheduled to reconvene. Under siege within his own party after the ruling coalition suffered a major setback at March general elections and now held responsible for a listless economy, Abdullah finds himself in an increasingly tight political spot.

He recently hammered out a transition plan to hand over power to his deputy, Najib Abdul Razak, by 2010. He has since indicated he could leave earlier, and in an apparent move to appease his deputy he swapped portfolios with him, handing finance to Najib while Abdullah took over defense. Whether the ambitious Najib, who has been dogged by allegations linking him to the murder of a Mongolian woman, which he has denied, will be content with the minor reshuffle is still unclear.

Despite the transition plan, there appears to be a groundswell of sentiment within UMNO that would prefer Abdullah to leave much sooner than he would prefer. The party has called an emergency supreme council meeting for Friday, sparking fresh speculation that change could be in the offing. This sentiment is also coming from some of the reactionary forces within UMNO, which are believed to be inspired by former premier and party leader Mahathir Mohamad.

Mahathir formally quit the party in May, but he is now said to be contemplating a return. He was reported to be backing former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah's bid for the UMNO presidency, which will be decided in December. Mahathir's son, Mukhriz Mahathir, is also reported to be eyeing the leadership of UMNO's powerful youth wing. He will likely run up against Abdullah's ambitious son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, and former Selangor state chief minister Mohamad Khir Toyo for that post.

The political transition could speed up if Abdullah fails to secure enough nominations for the UMNO presidency from the party's various divisions, whose elections are due to run from October to November. To receive the nomination, he needs to secure the nod from at least 30%, or 58 divisions, of UMNO's 191 party divisions across the country. With his mounting political troubles, not everyone is convinced he can pull it off.

Meanwhile, in the midst of the political uncertainty, the arrests and detention without trial of a senior Selangor state government official from the People's Alliance, a Chinese newspaper journalist, the editor of a popular Internet news portal and a blogger have sent a chill down the spines of many Malaysians.

Three of them have been released, but Malaysia Today website editor Raja Petra Kamarudin was sent this week to the Kamunting detention camp, where he will serve two years under the renewable order of Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar. The government's use of the ISA against perceived political opponents has sparked outrage among many Malaysians and rare protests among ruling coalition politicians, one of whom quit his position as law minister over the arrests.

Raja Petra, whose website commands a huge following, is seen as something of a folk hero in Malaysia for his frequent exposes of official corruption and abuse of power. Some of his readers believe he was detained to give UMNO leaders a break from his widely read criticisms in the run-up to their party polls - though the official reason given was that his articles insulted Islam and were a threat to national security.

Malaysians have signed online petitions, mailed greeting cards to detainees, participated in candlelight vigils in public places and flocked to prayer services in several places of worship. The arrests have arguably swung public opinion further against the ruling coalition and Abdullah's fast-waning moral authority. Whether Anwar's alliance can capitalize on that sentiment and establish a new reformist government could be determined by UMNO's and Abdullah's next moves.

Anil Netto
Asia Times Online
26/09/08