Malaysia’s Political Waiting Room

It’s as if an entire nation is holding its breath. Malaysia’s embattled Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has already said he will give up power to take responsibility for the ruling coalition’s humiliating performance in polls earlier this year. But Abdullah hasn’t specified exactly when he might hand over the reins to his deputy, Najib Razak, even though the government’s popularity figures are languishing at a record low. Meanwhile, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, whose People’s Alliance did surprisingly well in the March elections, boasts that he has lured enough defectors from the governing alliance to form a new government. But despite promising to unveil his new team in mid-September, Anwar hasn’t shown the goods yet. As the political standoff heightens, Malaysians can only sit and hope that someone will soon tackle the nation’s problems: a growing racial divide, a lagging economy, a judiciary whose independence has been questioned, and, most fundamentally, a sense that things in Malaysia aren’t quite right.

No one doubts that Malaysian politics are about to undergo a sea change. The only questions are when and how — and those are big questions in a country that is trying to secure its status as a model Muslim-majority democracy. Will Anwar — a man who once served as deputy prime minister until he had a political falling-out with his mentor and spent six years in jail — be able to bring down a ruling coalition that has governed Malaysia since independence? Or will Najib — the current deputy premier whose reputation has been tainted by the murder trial of his former advisor — take the helm and sustain the National Front’s hold on power? Already, Anwar’s power play has been dismissed as a mere rhetorical flourish by the ruling coalition. Why else, they ask, did the opposition leader miss his self-imposed deadline of Sept. 16 to unseat the National Front? Abdullah himself sniffed that his rival’s confidence of a political takeover was a “mirage.” Indeed, on Sept. 24, Anwar himself seemed to be scaling back expectations of an imminent political shift. “[The People's Alliance] agreed neither to be provoked into hasty action,” he said, “nor to take an irresponsible approach that would lead to instability and greater uncertainty.”

As the country waits for a political breakthrough, a fresh government crackdown on potential dissent has many critics running scared. On September 12th, three opposition-linked figures — an online blogger, a journalist and a politician — were taken into custody. The country’s Law Minister Zaid Ibrahim resigned in protest of the arrests, and two of the trio were released within days. But on Sept. 22, Raja Petra Kamaruddin, the founder of influential online news site Malaysia Today, was directed by the Home Minister to spend two years in a detention center for inciting racial hatred. Because Raja Petra’s case came under the auspices of Malaysia’s draconian Internal Security Act (ISA), a colonial-era relic used by the British to try to clamp down on insurgents without due process, the jail sentence was handed down without trial. International condemnation was swift, with a U.S. State Department spokesperson saying: “The detention of opposition leaders under the ISA would be viewed by the United States and the international community as a fundamental infringement of democratic rights and values.”

Anwar is facing his own legal troubles. On Sept. 24, a court case against him, in which a male former aide accused his ex-employer of sodomy, was adjourned until Oct. 7. The charge was the same as one that landed Anwar in jail a decade ago. In 2004, that sex conviction was overturned. This time around, Anwar again denies any wrongdoing and says the allegations are retribution for his political resurrection. Certainly, Anwar’s comeback has been remarkable. In late August, he won a by-election for a parliamentary seat in a landslide, placing him in position to become Prime Minister should the People’s Alliance indeed sway enough National Front lawmakers to its side. Malaysia’s parliament, which has taken a break during the Muslim fasting period, reconvenes Oct. 13. At that point, Anwar has said he will try to place a no-confidence motion against Abdullah.

But the most immediate move is Abdullah’s. Before parliament is back in session, he will have to decide whether to run again for leader of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the dominant party in the National Front. Traditionally, Malaysia’s Prime Minister also serves as UMNO’s head. If Abdullah forgoes his candidacy, then that decision will likely signal an early power shift to Najib. As the days count down, all Malaysians can do is hold their breath for a little while longer.