After the 55th PAS Muktamar, Umno has indeed grabbed hold of the weak spot in Pakatan Rakyat and exploited it to their advantage.
The weak spot is PAS and the opportunity came in the form of the apparent readiness of certain leaders in PAS for talks with Umno, purportedly for the formation of a unity government.
As these leaders include the newly elected President and Deputy President, a worried outcry broke out on PAS’ intention and its commitment to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
First of all, we must ask, “What unity government?” Umno has never warmed up to PAS President Hadi Awang’s call for a unity government when it first surfaced last year nor are they likely to now.
Although some leaders in PAS may have allowed themselves to be seduced by a possible shortcut to political power, they can go on dreaming.
Umno does not even share any real power with its partners much less will it share it with PAS. Despite their uncomfortable situation in Perak, Najib has ruled out any unity government in the silver state.
Umno will of course let the issue of unity government dangle in the wind instead of stating their stand clearly. The talk of a unity government will serve to whip up pressure within Pakatan and confuse PR voters although it can also be a double-edged sword but more on that later.
Khairy was more realistic in jumping on the call for Umno-PAS talks on the basis of finding common grounds for tackling national issues and strengthening Malay unity. But if Khairy is really sincere, why wasn’t DAP and PKR included in tacking national issues and how can any discussion on Malay unity leave out PKR and Anwar Ibrahim who is a major Malay leader?
Malay unity is a hollow concept which will heighten ethnic insecurity of the other races and is odious when one should be talking about national unity in tandem with 1Malaysia.
Fortunately the Malays have become too diverse to be united under one party and any attempt to tie up the Malay voting block will be detrimental to both parties.
Apparently the “talks” are pointless and intended to drive a wedge between PAS and its partners in Pakatan. We must understand that it is not even necessary for actual talks to take place but the mere intimation of talks is enough to create pressure between the partners and confuse voters.
However it is surprising that high-ranking PAS leaders like Hadi Awang and Nasharuddin cannot see through this transparent Umno trap. Still, it would be unfair to ignore their many expressions of support for PR and attacks on Umno in their speeches during the Muktamar and pick on a couple of seeming overtures to Umno.
One gets the impression that both Hadi and Nasharuddin are not the political simpletons we may think but their casual references to Umno is meant to serve as an oblique warning to PKR and DAP that PAS is not to be taken for granted in the coalition.
Umno’s Irony
What does Umno hope to gain from this? As I’ve written at length in “Will BN Lose Power in the Next General Election?,” Umno lacks any ability or political will to reform and its best bet is to hope or engineer a PR breakup.
If talks with PAS or the mere intimation for talk could create enough mistrust and suspicion between PR partners to break up this ‘dangerous’ (to Umno that is) coalition, their problems would be solved in an instant and they could cavort down easy street to the next general election.
Even if it does not break up PR, voters may be confused or disgusted enough with PAS and PR in general to withhold their vote.
But here lies the irony. Can Umno, while using itself as an object of disdain to drive voters away from PR hope to claim those very voters?
Added to this is the inconvenient reality that talks with PAS is a double-edged sword which cuts both ways as any Umno-PAS cooperation is a major concern for the non-Malays who may be suspicious that hard-line Islamic policies may be on the cards.
It is clear that any Umno-PAS cooperation will not endear non-Malay voters to BN. Neither are they impressed by the deafening silence of MCA, MIC and Gerakan leaders to the proposed Umno-PAS talks which prove once again their subservient relationship to Umno.
In the final showdown, PR could well have the last laugh by asking non-Malay voters whether they trust MCA and MIC to protect their rights against Umno-PAS or PKR and DAP to hold PAS in check.
A Post-Election Nightmare?
There remains the possibility of PAS riding with PR for the next general election and defecting to form a post-election pact with Umno to give BN enough Parliamentary seats to rule Malaysia. That Umno has made such an approach in Selangor and Perak after the 2008 tsunami must give some voters the jitters.
But the important point to remember is that PAS did not betray its partners although the temptation to go to bed with Umno must have been considerable especially if some Federal level positions were thrown.
But notwithstanding a few leaders whose base racial instinct rank higher than religion, I believe it would be highly unlikely for the party to jettison its partners for Umno.
In the first place, if PAS has won the right to govern the country together with DAP and PKR, what can Umno offer it that it hasn’t already got?
Is Umno going to offer it the PM post? Not likely. Turn Malaysia into an Islamic state? In this case, wouldn’t you expect the other component parties to wake up from their subservient stupor and rebel?
The fact is that there are an overwhelming number of PAS leaders and grassroot members who are dead set against any cooperation with Umno, which makes it impossible for PAS to join Umno without an internal revolt.
Furthermore, PAS as a party based on religion would be betraying its very philosophy and foundation if it stabs its partners in the back and defects to the BN.
Even more devastating than betraying its partners is betraying the public. Can the party survive after having lost its soul even if it can survive an internal revolt from any cooperation with Umno?
Still, voters are a fickle and jittery lot and fears need not be rational for the feelings to be manifested. This is where PAS must do much to demonstrate solidarity with its partners and refrain from falling in Umno’s public relations trap.
How Will Voters Vote, Will They Condone The Flirting?
One hopes that for the sake of the fledging coalition on which many Malaysians have pinned their hopes, PAS will stop flirting with Umno and declare its commitment to its partners.
Umno through the controlled mass media can capitalize on any feelings of doubt and insecurity in PR and blow up a non-issue into a mountain that confuses voters.
The Umno-PAS talk is one such matter which should have remained a non-issue as it was only mentioned in passing at the PAS 55th Muktamar as a possibility without any concrete call for action.
In the event that some leaders in PAS continue to dance to Umno’s tune without realizing it and given that PR remains intact to the next general election, how will voters vote?
I would expect seats contested by PKR and DAP to be largely unaffected. It will be in those seats contested by PAS that the voters get confused.
Here we may find some ambivalence especially among non-Malay voters but will their distrust of PAS be strong enough to overcome their hatred of BN?
A lot will depend on whether PAS makes the right noises come election time. But I believe voters nowadays are matured and are able to separate reality from rhetoric, fact from deceptive propaganda and the views of individuals to the official stand of the party.
Voters are also smart enough to understand that PAS cannot act unilaterally in a three party coalition of equal partners and finally, PAS will be contesting mainly in Malay majority areas which will ameliorate the effect of non-Malay distrust.
In any case we should not forget that any fallout from Umno-PAS cooperation or the fear of it cuts both ways.
To compound the matter, BN is not expected to make any reforms to win back voters to its fold so voters caught between the blue devil and the deep green sea may well give the green sea another chance.
Hence I do not expect a wholesale swing of non-Malay support from PR to BN or even from PAS to BN.
But one cannot deny that there will be some loss of support for PAS from fence sitters which may be crucial in those seats which PAS has won due to support from non-Malays. In 2008, there were seven such seats.
My prognosis is that unless PAS pulls away from a risky dalliance with Umno and clarifies its stand in no uncertain terms it may lose some seats but not enough to stop PR from gaining a majority overall with some help from East Malaysia.
If the Islamic party ends up with the least seats among the PR coalition, it only has itself to blame.
SK
18/06/09
The weak spot is PAS and the opportunity came in the form of the apparent readiness of certain leaders in PAS for talks with Umno, purportedly for the formation of a unity government.
As these leaders include the newly elected President and Deputy President, a worried outcry broke out on PAS’ intention and its commitment to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
First of all, we must ask, “What unity government?” Umno has never warmed up to PAS President Hadi Awang’s call for a unity government when it first surfaced last year nor are they likely to now.
Although some leaders in PAS may have allowed themselves to be seduced by a possible shortcut to political power, they can go on dreaming.
Umno does not even share any real power with its partners much less will it share it with PAS. Despite their uncomfortable situation in Perak, Najib has ruled out any unity government in the silver state.
Umno will of course let the issue of unity government dangle in the wind instead of stating their stand clearly. The talk of a unity government will serve to whip up pressure within Pakatan and confuse PR voters although it can also be a double-edged sword but more on that later.
Khairy was more realistic in jumping on the call for Umno-PAS talks on the basis of finding common grounds for tackling national issues and strengthening Malay unity. But if Khairy is really sincere, why wasn’t DAP and PKR included in tacking national issues and how can any discussion on Malay unity leave out PKR and Anwar Ibrahim who is a major Malay leader?
Malay unity is a hollow concept which will heighten ethnic insecurity of the other races and is odious when one should be talking about national unity in tandem with 1Malaysia.
Fortunately the Malays have become too diverse to be united under one party and any attempt to tie up the Malay voting block will be detrimental to both parties.
Apparently the “talks” are pointless and intended to drive a wedge between PAS and its partners in Pakatan. We must understand that it is not even necessary for actual talks to take place but the mere intimation of talks is enough to create pressure between the partners and confuse voters.
However it is surprising that high-ranking PAS leaders like Hadi Awang and Nasharuddin cannot see through this transparent Umno trap. Still, it would be unfair to ignore their many expressions of support for PR and attacks on Umno in their speeches during the Muktamar and pick on a couple of seeming overtures to Umno.
One gets the impression that both Hadi and Nasharuddin are not the political simpletons we may think but their casual references to Umno is meant to serve as an oblique warning to PKR and DAP that PAS is not to be taken for granted in the coalition.
Umno’s Irony
What does Umno hope to gain from this? As I’ve written at length in “Will BN Lose Power in the Next General Election?,” Umno lacks any ability or political will to reform and its best bet is to hope or engineer a PR breakup.
If talks with PAS or the mere intimation for talk could create enough mistrust and suspicion between PR partners to break up this ‘dangerous’ (to Umno that is) coalition, their problems would be solved in an instant and they could cavort down easy street to the next general election.
Even if it does not break up PR, voters may be confused or disgusted enough with PAS and PR in general to withhold their vote.
But here lies the irony. Can Umno, while using itself as an object of disdain to drive voters away from PR hope to claim those very voters?
Added to this is the inconvenient reality that talks with PAS is a double-edged sword which cuts both ways as any Umno-PAS cooperation is a major concern for the non-Malays who may be suspicious that hard-line Islamic policies may be on the cards.
It is clear that any Umno-PAS cooperation will not endear non-Malay voters to BN. Neither are they impressed by the deafening silence of MCA, MIC and Gerakan leaders to the proposed Umno-PAS talks which prove once again their subservient relationship to Umno.
In the final showdown, PR could well have the last laugh by asking non-Malay voters whether they trust MCA and MIC to protect their rights against Umno-PAS or PKR and DAP to hold PAS in check.
A Post-Election Nightmare?
There remains the possibility of PAS riding with PR for the next general election and defecting to form a post-election pact with Umno to give BN enough Parliamentary seats to rule Malaysia. That Umno has made such an approach in Selangor and Perak after the 2008 tsunami must give some voters the jitters.
But the important point to remember is that PAS did not betray its partners although the temptation to go to bed with Umno must have been considerable especially if some Federal level positions were thrown.
But notwithstanding a few leaders whose base racial instinct rank higher than religion, I believe it would be highly unlikely for the party to jettison its partners for Umno.
In the first place, if PAS has won the right to govern the country together with DAP and PKR, what can Umno offer it that it hasn’t already got?
Is Umno going to offer it the PM post? Not likely. Turn Malaysia into an Islamic state? In this case, wouldn’t you expect the other component parties to wake up from their subservient stupor and rebel?
The fact is that there are an overwhelming number of PAS leaders and grassroot members who are dead set against any cooperation with Umno, which makes it impossible for PAS to join Umno without an internal revolt.
Furthermore, PAS as a party based on religion would be betraying its very philosophy and foundation if it stabs its partners in the back and defects to the BN.
Even more devastating than betraying its partners is betraying the public. Can the party survive after having lost its soul even if it can survive an internal revolt from any cooperation with Umno?
Still, voters are a fickle and jittery lot and fears need not be rational for the feelings to be manifested. This is where PAS must do much to demonstrate solidarity with its partners and refrain from falling in Umno’s public relations trap.
How Will Voters Vote, Will They Condone The Flirting?
One hopes that for the sake of the fledging coalition on which many Malaysians have pinned their hopes, PAS will stop flirting with Umno and declare its commitment to its partners.
Umno through the controlled mass media can capitalize on any feelings of doubt and insecurity in PR and blow up a non-issue into a mountain that confuses voters.
The Umno-PAS talk is one such matter which should have remained a non-issue as it was only mentioned in passing at the PAS 55th Muktamar as a possibility without any concrete call for action.
In the event that some leaders in PAS continue to dance to Umno’s tune without realizing it and given that PR remains intact to the next general election, how will voters vote?
I would expect seats contested by PKR and DAP to be largely unaffected. It will be in those seats contested by PAS that the voters get confused.
Here we may find some ambivalence especially among non-Malay voters but will their distrust of PAS be strong enough to overcome their hatred of BN?
A lot will depend on whether PAS makes the right noises come election time. But I believe voters nowadays are matured and are able to separate reality from rhetoric, fact from deceptive propaganda and the views of individuals to the official stand of the party.
Voters are also smart enough to understand that PAS cannot act unilaterally in a three party coalition of equal partners and finally, PAS will be contesting mainly in Malay majority areas which will ameliorate the effect of non-Malay distrust.
In any case we should not forget that any fallout from Umno-PAS cooperation or the fear of it cuts both ways.
To compound the matter, BN is not expected to make any reforms to win back voters to its fold so voters caught between the blue devil and the deep green sea may well give the green sea another chance.
Hence I do not expect a wholesale swing of non-Malay support from PR to BN or even from PAS to BN.
But one cannot deny that there will be some loss of support for PAS from fence sitters which may be crucial in those seats which PAS has won due to support from non-Malays. In 2008, there were seven such seats.
My prognosis is that unless PAS pulls away from a risky dalliance with Umno and clarifies its stand in no uncertain terms it may lose some seats but not enough to stop PR from gaining a majority overall with some help from East Malaysia.
If the Islamic party ends up with the least seats among the PR coalition, it only has itself to blame.
SK
18/06/09
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