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The Next 13th General Election is for Pakatan / BN to Lose

The Kuomintang Party ruled Taiwan as an independent nation for 51 years after it was ousted from mainland China in 1949. During its autocratic one party rule, it built up a vast business empire through the intermingling of business and politics.

Besides being riddled with corruption and practicing vote buying, it also abused state institutions and oppressed the opposition. Like Barisan National, the Kuomintang Party seemed invincible although it lost many seats to the opposition in 1996.

But the Kuomintang failed to take its losses in 1996 as a wake-up call and continued with its excesses, thinking it could never lose power.

In 2000, it became the opposition as the Democratic Progressive Party swept to power on the back of general disenchantment with the Kuomintang.

The DPP was no angelic party as it had its own share of internal bickering and some of its leaders were also accused of corruption but voters chose the lesser devil.

Has BN learned Anything?

There are many parallels between the Kuomintang Party of Taiwan and Barisan National, not least is that both have been massively corrupt. Both of them have ruled for about half a century in a one party system and had no qualms about abusing state institutions and using corrupt means to maintain power.

The Kuomintang was finally kicked out by voters after it failed to reform after its 1996 losses.

Has BN learned anything from the last general election in which the opposition made stunning gains? Has it done anything to win back voters to save itself from a possible Kuomintang fate?

Some much needed economic liberalization in the financial and services sectors and in company equity have been made. The Malaysian public has been thrown some small economic goodies for a limited segment of the population but in the areas of social justice, democratic rights, corruption and service delivery, things have gotten worse.

Between the Need and the Political Will

These few examples should convince anybody that Umno has no appetite for reforms. In fact BN’s insecurity in the face of the Pakatan challenge has caused it to abuse state institutions even more for its survival.

The Perak power grab represents the worse of BN’s post-election acts. Taking over Perak by highly immoral means and holding on to it at all costs by abusing the police and judiciary in a naked display of power while ignoring popular calls for new elections shows BN’s arrogant disdain for public opinion.

Dragging the legitimate Perak speaker out of his chair in a shameful episode of lawlessness to cement BN’s power grab shows their cavalier disregard for the constitution and the rule of law.

The lack of political will to bring the culprits of the multi-billion PKFZ financial scandal to book shows that nothing has changed with respect to fighting endemic corruption.

Najib’s 1Malaysia is insincere when Umno-owned newspapers are allowed to spew racial poison, racial politicking is used in by-elections and Umno pursues unity talks with PAS for Malay-Muslim unity instead of striving for national unity.

Dragging Anwar to court over ridiculously transparent sodomy charges show that abuse of enforcement agencies and the judiciary to put away political opponents is still a top weapon of choice.

The fact that nobody has been charged for hundreds of custodial deaths including Kugan Ananthan, Francis Udayappan and R Gunasegaran means that such deaths will recur with impunity and disturbing regularity.

The paltry fine on Umno Youth members who roughly confronted Karpal Singh on Parliament grounds and Karpal’s own unwarranted sedition charge show that not everybody is equal under the law.

The police seem to put more priority in arresting harmless participants of candle light vigils, breaking up opposition gatherings and harassing the opposition figures than in fighting crime to the detriment of public security.

The MACC seems to ignore serious cases of corruption involving BN politicians but sees fit to go on a fishing expedition or a witch hunt against the Selangor Pakatan assemblymen when no complaints against them have been lodged.

The unfortunate death of Teoh Beng Hock as a casualty of MACC’s political adventurism in Selangor and insincere efforts by the authorities to get to the bottom of this despite the widespread public anger indicate that this will be yet another crime without criminals.

Last but not least, the brutal crackdown on the anti-ISA rally in Kuala Lumpur on Aug 1 proves that this regime still thinks that oppression of the people is the best way to maintain its power granted by the people.

False Indicators from Manek Urai

Despite many political analysts jumping on the bandwagon that the result of the Manek Urai by-election in July indicates that the Malay vote is moving back to Umno, this is doubtful.

PAS has won this seat in 2008 and many other times because their candidate Ismail Yaacob was very popular locally. PAS won this seat with a majority of 1,352 votes in 2008 but lost it by 53 votes in 2004 when he did not contest. Last month’s by-election was called because Ismail passed away.

Issues that influence voters in Manek Urai are mainly local so they are not influenced by Najib’s national economic reforms or his 1Malaysia which have little effect on the over 99% Malay voters. It is doubtful that voters there are affected by PR squabbles in Penang and Kedah or the Kg Buah Pala case.

The only national issue which may have affected this by-election is the reversal of teaching Maths and Science in English and that is favourable to BN in this rural constituency.

So Manek Urai is not a PAS stronghold but a seat where fence sitters and personality politics rule. Despite BN’s chanelling their unlimited resources into this by-election and using underhanded tactics like polling on a working day, vote-buying, racist-campaigning, development promises with even a bridge thrown in, they still failed to wrest this seat from a PAS weakened by factionalism over unity talks.

No, Manek Urai is not an indication of BN’s resurgence but proof of their continuing unpopularity.

Cheap Tricks to Avoid Reforms

As Umno has no political will to reform even for its own survival, it prefers to depend on cheap tricks like sodomy II and unity talks with PAS in the hope that Pakatan will break up. These are tricks because there is falsehood and deception behind them and they are cheap because Umno does not have to make any painful reforms.

The mainstream press blows up any disagreement between PR leaders as signs that the coalition is cracking up while downplaying any problems within BN coalition parties.

Even as Gerakan is in turmoil, MCA is heading for a split, PPP is being torn apart under two Presidents and deep dissatisfaction fester in MIC with Samy Vellu’s autocratic leadership, the public is led by the supine press to believe that everything is fine.

PR is in no danger of breaking up despite Umno’s best efforts to woo PAS with unity talks. The unity talks will go nowhere as both sides appear to be shadow boxing. Neither will putting Anwar away in jail unwind the coalition as it has grown beyond the need for Anwar to be physically present in order to be the unifying glue.

Indeed, there is cohesion within PR that is lacking in BN. The partners are united by the common ideology of social justice and building a better Malaysia and there is great motivation for them to stay together as the only way to win Federal power.

A People Hungry for Change

The inability of Umno to reform has convinced many Malaysians that the only way to change the deep-seated corruption, institutional abuses and social injustice is to change the government. It is cavalier of Umno to think that Malaysians do not bother about social justice as long as they are thrown some economic goodies.

Teoh Beng Hock’s needless death has stirred all right-thinking Malaysians and shoved fence sitters off their perch to join those who are convinced the BN is morally unfit to govern.

If Anwar Ibrahim is convicted for sodomy on charges which are plainly ridiculous even before the trial starts, it will just seal BN’s political coffin as securely as his prison cell.

PR may have its internal bickering and its flaws but all these will be swept away in a tide of revulsion against BN by voters hungry for change. No matter how the mainstream press tries to blacken PR, they are still the lesser devil compared to BN.

In the unlikely event that PR breaks up, it does not necessarily mean that BN is saved. As long as the opposition cooperates to avoid 3-corner fights, voters disillusioned with BN may still give them enough seats to govern Malaysia if they combine their seats after the election.

Can BN Bounce Back?

In the case of Kuomintang, it restructured itself after its devastating loss in 2004 and regained power in 2008 with an overwhelming victory. Will BN be able to reform itself after a stint as the opposition and bounce back?

BN may not be as fortunate as Kuomintang. The only glue which holds the 13 component parties together is Federal Power. Once that is lost, the coalition will almost certainly break up.

The component parties will not accept Umno’s dominance when it has no patronage to dish out. If Umno can reform itself to accept an equal partnership system like PR, some parties like MCA, MIC and Gerakan may stay with Umno as they have nowhere to go.

Despite BN’s obvious faults, one hopes it survives in one form or another in order to propagate the two party system and provide some competition for PR. Malaysians do not need another one party system which will almost certainly end up with the same devastating flaws as BN.

SK
04/08/09

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