I am simply awed by the extent to which our people out there in cyberspace are victims of wishful thinking. Let me quote from one self assured Kgen a commentor in Malaysiakini “HRP ('Hindu', not 'Human' Rights Party?) can only be a spoiler for Pakatan as they cannot hope to win this seat. If Pakatan loses in a tight contest, HRP will be condemned by all races as Umno's stooge and Uthayakumar will be hailed as the backhanded Umno 'mandore'”.
I say wishful thinking, because what we have staring at us in our face is a clean BN win, with or without HRP participation. Yet some like Kgen seem not to be able to see this simple fact. The only way that PKR can win this election is if they put up a real credible candidate like Zaid Ibrahim and get a strong endorsement from a strong grassroots Indian organization like the Human Rights Party. Any other way, no one can stop a BN win.
That this cannot be seen simply amounts to wishful thinking.
Let me explain: The electorate was 63,600 strong in 2008 March. The number of people who voted on that fateful day was 47,600. Let us assume for the purpose of this analysis that the 25% who did not vote on that day were evenly spread between the Malays, Chinese and Indians. There were some 1500 spoilt votes. Given that the BN candidate was Indian, it is likely that most who spoilt their votes that day would have been Malay voters, because of their indifference. The Chinese and Indian voters were all charged up to vote out UMNO.
If 53% of the voters on that day were Malay, and 1500 votes were spoilt it would mean 23,700 Malay voters voted on that day. 13,300 Chinese and 9,000 Indians also voted that day. G. Palanivel of MIC received 22,979 votes that day. His opponent the late Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad (may his soul RIP) of PKR got 23,177 votes. Almost even.
It would be reasonable to say that at least 60-70% of the votes of the Indians went to PKR or 5,500 to 6,300 Indian votes went to PKR. And it would also be reasonable to say that at least 70-80% of the Chinese votes went to PKR or 9,200 to 10,300 votes. So the non Malay votes that went to PKR were from 14,700 to 16,600.
That means PKR only received 6,500 to 8,400 Malay votes. Of the votes PKR received that day only 28% to 36% were Malays votes. 40-45% of the votes they received were Chinese votes and 20 – 32% of the votes were Indian votes.
If there is going to be a swing in the votes it would not be too unreasonable to assume that the swing will come from both the Malay as well the Indian votes and they will be both away from PR. The Chinese votes are solidly anti –establishment and will remain with PR.
UMNO will play up the Malay insecurity feelings of losing out to the non-Malays – a theme it has begun playing up through Perkasa. What with Muhiyddin Yassin leading the bye election campaign in Hulu Selangor. PKR does not have much to go on except Anwar’s sodomy case this time around. The rural voters anyway are the backbone for UMNO and rural Malays are not the forte of PKR. That is why PKR received so few Malay votes the last time in rural Hulu Selangor. So after all the plusses and minuses, in our ethnocentric system, UMNO will come out ahead of PKR for the Malay votes compared to the 2008 elections.
The Indian vote swing will be even more significant as there is a growing disenchantment among the Indian voters that PR has done a number on them in the last two years just like UMNO did in the preceding half century. With the Deputy President of MIC who is the present candidate coupled with the ethnocentric nature of our politics and in the absence of a countervailing force like an endorsement from Hindraf for PR, the swing of Indian votes away from PR is inevitable. There is not much difference between the devil and the deep blue sea – both ways you will die, but which is the less painful way, will be the decision criteria.
This trend was already set in Bagan Pinang, now the same will happen in Hulu Selangor. The Indians in PR will not be able to reverse that. They could not do much in Bagan Pinang. A PR win will require no less than a clear endorsement from the Human Rights Party for the Indian votes to keep them from sliding away to BN.
So what do you have – a PR victory? A PR victory that HRP is about to spoil?
Subramaniam Bharathy
28/03/10
I say wishful thinking, because what we have staring at us in our face is a clean BN win, with or without HRP participation. Yet some like Kgen seem not to be able to see this simple fact. The only way that PKR can win this election is if they put up a real credible candidate like Zaid Ibrahim and get a strong endorsement from a strong grassroots Indian organization like the Human Rights Party. Any other way, no one can stop a BN win.
That this cannot be seen simply amounts to wishful thinking.
Let me explain: The electorate was 63,600 strong in 2008 March. The number of people who voted on that fateful day was 47,600. Let us assume for the purpose of this analysis that the 25% who did not vote on that day were evenly spread between the Malays, Chinese and Indians. There were some 1500 spoilt votes. Given that the BN candidate was Indian, it is likely that most who spoilt their votes that day would have been Malay voters, because of their indifference. The Chinese and Indian voters were all charged up to vote out UMNO.
If 53% of the voters on that day were Malay, and 1500 votes were spoilt it would mean 23,700 Malay voters voted on that day. 13,300 Chinese and 9,000 Indians also voted that day. G. Palanivel of MIC received 22,979 votes that day. His opponent the late Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad (may his soul RIP) of PKR got 23,177 votes. Almost even.
It would be reasonable to say that at least 60-70% of the votes of the Indians went to PKR or 5,500 to 6,300 Indian votes went to PKR. And it would also be reasonable to say that at least 70-80% of the Chinese votes went to PKR or 9,200 to 10,300 votes. So the non Malay votes that went to PKR were from 14,700 to 16,600.
That means PKR only received 6,500 to 8,400 Malay votes. Of the votes PKR received that day only 28% to 36% were Malays votes. 40-45% of the votes they received were Chinese votes and 20 – 32% of the votes were Indian votes.
If there is going to be a swing in the votes it would not be too unreasonable to assume that the swing will come from both the Malay as well the Indian votes and they will be both away from PR. The Chinese votes are solidly anti –establishment and will remain with PR.
UMNO will play up the Malay insecurity feelings of losing out to the non-Malays – a theme it has begun playing up through Perkasa. What with Muhiyddin Yassin leading the bye election campaign in Hulu Selangor. PKR does not have much to go on except Anwar’s sodomy case this time around. The rural voters anyway are the backbone for UMNO and rural Malays are not the forte of PKR. That is why PKR received so few Malay votes the last time in rural Hulu Selangor. So after all the plusses and minuses, in our ethnocentric system, UMNO will come out ahead of PKR for the Malay votes compared to the 2008 elections.
The Indian vote swing will be even more significant as there is a growing disenchantment among the Indian voters that PR has done a number on them in the last two years just like UMNO did in the preceding half century. With the Deputy President of MIC who is the present candidate coupled with the ethnocentric nature of our politics and in the absence of a countervailing force like an endorsement from Hindraf for PR, the swing of Indian votes away from PR is inevitable. There is not much difference between the devil and the deep blue sea – both ways you will die, but which is the less painful way, will be the decision criteria.
This trend was already set in Bagan Pinang, now the same will happen in Hulu Selangor. The Indians in PR will not be able to reverse that. They could not do much in Bagan Pinang. A PR win will require no less than a clear endorsement from the Human Rights Party for the Indian votes to keep them from sliding away to BN.
So what do you have – a PR victory? A PR victory that HRP is about to spoil?
Subramaniam Bharathy
28/03/10
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