It Is Not The Right Time For A By-election

No one has expected that a badminton tragedy has caused an unwanted by-election. The parliamentary by-election in Kuala Terengganu is not welcomed by both Umno and Pas.

It is definitely a tough battle. No party would think they will lose but no party dares to say they will sure win either. This is where the problem lies. There is not much significance in a win but it wopuld be terrible to lose (Permatang Pauh is a major lesson).

Umno does not want a by-election as it is bogged down with its party elections. The dilemma it that it wants to fight the battle but may not do it well as it is concentrating on the party elections.

Also, Kuala Terengganu is certainly not a favourable battlefield for Umno. It won a narrow victory last time and that did not reflect its advantage. Particularly, the dispute of the Menteri Besar's appointment broke out only after the election. Until today, former MB Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh and incumbent MB Datuk Ahmad Said are still against one another. They are having their own supporters and they must first fight for control of the by-election resources even before the by-election.

"Besides, conservatives in Umno and Pas have established a closer relationship after the elections."

More importantly, the by-election will directly affect Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak's reputation. Najib is preparing to take over the Prime Minister position and he is fearful of side issues. Umno's strength is not recovered yet. Of course, victory in a sudden by-election can boost the morale but losing it will be really bad.

As for Pas, they have more worries than expectations. The contradictions between conservatives and reformists may be expanded in this by-election.

PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang, as well as Terengganu PAS Commissioner Datuk Mustafa Ali are conservatives. Under their leadership, they have lost two elections and if they lose again this time, it would affect their status in the party.

It is worth pondering that Pas candidate last time was Mohamad Sabu, a reformist, as well as the preferred candidate of Kelantan Mentri Besar Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat.

It is obvious that Hadi Awang does not want Mohamad Sabu to contest this time while Nik Aziz has shown his support to Mohamad Sabu.

It seems that the candidate selection will enlarge cracks within the party.

Besides, conservatives in Umno and Pas have established a closer relationship after the elections. They try to avoid head-on collision and see PKR and its adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as their common opponents.

It is unexpected but they have no choice but to fight face-to-face in the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary by-election this time.

(By TAY TIAN YAN/ Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE/ Sin Chew Daily)
06/12/08