Malaysia vote test for govt, opposition

A January by-election will provide a key test for Malaysia's incoming prime minister as he seeks to avert a sharp economic slowdown, while a win for the opposition could reignite Anwar Ibrahim's stuttering campaign.

The election commission on Friday set the date of the vote, caused by the death of a government MP, for January 17.

It will be the first vote since the collapse of Anwar's bid to take power on September 16 when he failed to win over the support of 30 government legislators needed to form a new administration.

Anwar, a former deputy prime minister, seemed to be on the verge then of ousting the government that has ruled Malaysia for 51 years after the opposition scored its best result in elections in March and Anwar returned to parliament in August with a landslide win.

The main government party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), accelerated a handover from lacklustre Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to his deputy, Najib Razak.

"If UMNO wins, it will be seen as a victory for Najib personally, but if the opposition wins, it can only be seen as PAS getting stronger since the March general election," said James Chin, professor of political science at Monash University.

Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), the Islamic party popular with Malay Muslims in Anwar's three party alliance, will contest Kuala Terengganu which is located deep in the Malay heartland.

The constituency is almost 90% Malay, the race traditionally represented by UMNO, compared with 60 percent nationally.

The government majority in the constituency in elections held in March this year when there was a massive swing to the opposition was just 628 votes.

"The poll will be seen as a bellwether of the Malay heartland vote," the Singapore-based Straits Times said on Friday.

However, in terms of altering the balance of power in parliament where the government currently has a 55-seat majority of 221 sitting MPs, the vote will not have a massive impact.

Testing economic times

The global economic recession is starting to bite in Malaysia and the government is forecasting economic growth will be 3.5% in 2009, the lowest in eight years.

Since UMNO agreed the handover of power, it is Najib who also became finance minister who has made policy and has taken charge of steering Malaysia through the gathering global economic storm.

"This contest will be a bellwether of Najib's ability to galvanise the troops on the ground and convince voters that he is the future of the country," said the influential Malaysian Insider website.

Reuters
06/12/08