What started as a cry for
help by Malaysians during rolling lockdowns and galloping Covid-19 infections
has come to epitomize the descent of their once-proud nation. The Southeast
Asian country lost its status as a role model for the developing world some time
ago. Now, it may be relegated to the lane of also-rans that shone during the
heyday of globalization but failed to capitalize on a strong start.
Malaysians in distress have
taken to waving the white flag from
windows and driveways. At the most basic level, it’s surrender and a plea for
assistance: food, a bit of cash to help pay the rent. Thanks to social media,
the banners have taken on an emblematic life of their own. Not quite a
movement; people have no hope, and not much desire, to overthrow the
government, and it isn't clear these days that there’s one to topple.
It’s more of a shorthand for discontent at the atrophying state and
troubled economy.
The country’s prime ministers were once given grudging credit for stable
leadership, albeit with authoritarian traits. However, lawmakers have proven
breathtakingly unable to coalesce around a figure or program to guide
Malaysia through this plight. The nation is beset by multiple crises
— social, economic and political — fed and worsened by each other. It
may only be a slight exaggeration to invoke the dreaded label of a failed
state.
Civic life is suffering from numerous misadventures. The latest twist in
a saga that’s been running since
at least early 2020 came in the small hours of
Thursday. The United Malays National Organization, the party that led
Malaysia from independence until losing power in
2018 in the aftermath of the 1Malaysia Development Bhd. scandal, declared it will leave the
ramshackle coalition presided over by Prime Minister Muhyiddin
Yassin and urged him to quit. That may not be the end of the
machinations; UMNO itself is split between a group that wants to reclaim its
dominant position and lawmakers willing to keep nice cabinet posts
that Muhyiddin has given them.
There isn’t an easy way out of this mess. Malaysia’s travails go beyond any one person.
No prospective leader appears to have sufficient support in parliament, let
alone a mandate from the population of 32 million, to replace the weak prime
minister and provide stable
administration. An election is supposed to be held once the pandemic
subsides, a determination that’s hard to quantify. The monarchy, rotated
among hereditary sultans of nine states, is being forced to leave the ceremonial
shadows to referee, something that the royal households appear
less than comfortable doing.
So, the surrender flag captures the end of a strutting, can-do mentality,
or “boleh.” Citizens are stepping in where authorities have failed as
the pandemic has delivered seemingly endless misery. Southeast Asia has been
rocked by the delta variant. On Thursday, Malaysia added almost 9,000
Covid cases. Only a bit more than 8% of Malaysians have received both vaccine
shots, as of Monday. Some of the strictest lockdowns have been in Kuala
Lumpur and the nearby commercial powerhouse of Selangor state, and taken
a toll. At their worst, factories have been shut, public transportation
has run on a skeleton schedule, and the military has manned road blocks.Some
measures have been eased, but large parts of the country remain
shuttered.
Asia, writ large, is in the midst of a strong economic upswing. However,
that recovery has yet to fully visit Southeast Asia, a region of more than 650
million people. In its last World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary
Fund forecast growth in Malaysia of
6.5% this year. Gross domestic product plummeted by more than
5% in 2020, the worst performance since the Asian financial crisis in
1998. To meet such a bullish projection or even
get close to it, the second half of 2021 needs to be stellar. Further
interest rate cuts and fiscal outlays are almost assured. But whatever the
numbers say, many Malaysians aren’t close to feeling the benefit. Even rubber glove makers are worried;
they appealed to authorities this week to lower Covid restrictions and let
them continue to produce.
The last decades of the 20th century offered a different route. During Mahathir
Mohamad’s premiership from 1981 to 2003, Malaysia was an emerging-market
icon. The country grew rapidly with relatively low inflation and stable
budgets. Mahathir loved to poke at the West, but he opened markets and
privatized state companies. He resisted aid from the IMF and
challenged orthodoxy by imposing capital controls and
fixing the exchange rate during the Asian crisis. Contrary to
predictions that the efforts would fail, they shored up Malaysia.
But it started to go wrong. Boondoggles like an ostentatious new airport
and the soaring twin towers funded by state oil giant Petronas suggested
waste. One of Mahathir’s successors, Najib Razak, bungled the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines
Flight 370 in front of the world’s cameras. Najib led UMNO
to defeat in 2018 and has been convicted of corruption related
to 1MDB. Mahathir’s return at the helm of an
opposition bloc offered a brief moment of renewal. But
he couldn’t give up on political wheeling and dealing — even well
into his 90s — and opened the door for
Muhyiddin to edge him out of office.
Longstanding ethnic and religious fault
lines have been worsened in recent years by an urban-rural
divide and a generation gap that no political organization has come to grips
with. The credibility of the ruling class will keep eroding the longer it
takes to vaccinate against Covid and for a recovery to take hold. The
current intrigues sadly seem far removed from the daily needs of business,
finance and even putting food on the table.
No country can continue on this course indefinitely and be a model for anything
other than dysfunction.
Bloomberg
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