Hints on election date, only Election date is a mystery in Malaysia, why BN scared to reveal the date
The Budget 2013 has again reflected Prime
Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's cautiousness. He wishes to ensure
that majority of people give their support to the BN coalition before
dissolving the Parliament.
The Budget has taken care of all. In addition to the 1.4 million of
civil servants who will be receiving a bonus of one and a half months
salary, and middle-income earners who are expected to enjoy an
individual income tax rate reduction by 1%, the most impressive point would be the "family package" which would benefit every family member.
Children studying in primary and secondary schools will receive a Schooling Assistance of RM100, children in institutions of higher learning
(IPT) and at pre-university level will receive the RM250 1Malaysia Book
Voucher, and children who are working but earning less than RM2,000 or
below per month will receive a RM200 assistance while those learning
RM3,000 and below will get a one-off rebate of RM200 when they purchase
one unit of 3G smartphone from authorised dealers. Meanwhile, the father can enjoy a higher tax relief
on the children’s higher education, which has been increased from
RM4,000 per person to RM6,000, the mother enjoys free mammogram
examination, and the grandparents can also enjoy a reduction on the processing fee of a five-year passport and a 50% discount on KTM Komuter fares. For those whose household earning is RM3,000 and below, they are even eligible for a RM500 assistance.
Also, small traders, kindergarten and nursery
operators, Bumiputra companies, the oil and gas industry, the tourism
and people in Sabah and Sarawak have all been taken care of. From
individuals to industries and groups, it seems that the Budget has
missed no one out.
From the cash distribution timetable, it is estimated that the general
election is most likely to fall in March next year. The bonus for civil
servants would be distributed in December this year and January next
year, the RM100 Schooling Assistance, RM250 1Malaysia Book Voucher,
RM500 and RM200 aid assistance would be distributed in January next
year. The minimum wage policy
will also be put into effect starting from January 1. Therefore, early
next year will be the feel good peak period, which is most suitable for
the general election.
If the cash distribution work can be finished by January, the general
election can then be held the earliest in end of January, or it will
have to wait until March, after the Chinese New Year. However, it would
not be delayed until April, as the effect of cash distribution might
fade or disappear.
It is the wishful thinking of Najib, but he should not neglect that the middle class and swing voters
might have a different thought. For example, some people might be
worried that the treasury revenue is estimated to increase only by 0.7%
while the expenditure increases by RM18.8 billion, including the
administrative expenses that have been increased year-by-year,
accounting for 80% of the total expenses. Although the fiscal deficit
has been reduced to 4%, the debt has increased from 51.8% to 53.7%.
Moreover, government departments
have always spent unwisely and have to ask for a supplementary budget
every year. For example, the Finance Ministry had sought for a
supplementary budget of RM13.79 billion in June this year.
It is also a question whether one-off aids can really alleviate the
people's living burden, particularly prices have been continuously
rising. The RM500 aid means only RM41.67 for each month. Therefore, the
right way is to increase the disposable income.
The government has to take care of the feelings of too many people and
thus, the measureas taken are not strong enough. For example, increasing
the Real Property Gain Tax by only 5% is not enough to curb speculation.
Could the budget for development programmes and projects support the
economic growth after being reduced to 20%? It is a warning to have a
35% shrink of manufacturing investment in the second quarter this year.
Other events will also weaken the good feelings, such as the forthcoming
Auditor-General's Report might reveal some frauds. They might also lose
votes if laws and orders are not improved.
In addition, various social protest movements, including the Pengerang
anti-Rapid movements, will also affect the election deployment.
The Budget has sounded the election bugle. Do you still have passion for it?