KUALA LUMPUR: The Kuala Terengganu by-election remains too close to call, even as the campaign reaches the home stretch, but an independent poll released today suggests the major issue for voters is the "quality of the candidate" while hudud and perceived threats to Malay dominance have little currency.
According to the Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research, the Malay vote was evenly split with about 8 per cent undecided, while the Chinese are leaning slightly towards Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
There were also marked differences in Malay and Chinese voters' sentiment. The Malays, who make up a majority in the constituency, appeared to see Islam as a major issue, while the Chinese, considered an important swing vote, consider equality an important factor.
A majority of Malay respondents did not feel there were any threats to their community's political dominance, even after the results of the general election last March. Instead the Malay voters appeared to be more concerned with the corruption of political leaders.
While this Saturday's poll will not make any significant difference to the balance of power in Parliament, it is considered crucial for PR to reinvigorate its flagging momentum while Barisan Nasional (BN) will want to press home a victory to reinforce its believe that it has recovered from the poor results of the last general election.
The Merdeka Centre survey found that a majority of voters in the Malay-majority constituency felt that things in the country and state of Terengganu were headed in the right direction.
But a significant number of respondents also felt that a win for a non-BN candidate could send a signal to the government for change.
However, upon closer scrutiny the survey found that Chinese voter sentiments were more subdued, with respect to the direction of the country, only 36per cent of Chinese respondents agreed that it was in "the right direction" and were split at 50per cent with respect to the direction of the state of Terengganu.
At the same time, 70per cent of Malay voters said that "things were in the right direction" for the state of Terengganu.
When given a list of issues that they feel government should pay attention to, respondents chose "controlling inflation" (21per cent), "strengthening the position of Islam" (26per cent) and "bringing continued development" (16per cent) as most important. Among Chinese voters however, 51per cent wanted the government "to treat non-Malay communities more fairly" and a further 11per cent cited "fighting corruption".
"Reflecting perhaps the developments surrounding the selection of the respective contesting candidates, the survey found that voters were more intense in considering candidate quality over other factors such as issues, contesting parties or party leaders," the Merdeka Centre said in a press release accompanying the results of the survey.
The survey was conducted by telephone with 527 registered voters. A total of 408 of the respondents were Malays while 119 were Chinese. The poll was conducted between January 7 and January 11.
The survey found that 80per cent of voters remarked candidate quality as "very important" as opposed to 59per cent and 71per cent for current issues and party capability, respectively.
Among the Chinese respondents however, the issue of fair treatment for non-Bumiputras appeared to have strong currency.
75per cent strongly or somewhat agreed that by electing a non-BN candidate, the community could send a strong signal to the BN ruling government.
To another question, 56per cent of Chinese respondents and 46per cent of Malay respondents agreed that voting for the Pakatan Rakyat could push the BN government to "correct itself".
The issue of Hudud captured the notice of only one-half of the Chinese voters in Kuala Terengganu. Only 18per cent of the Chinese voters interviewed remarked that the issue plays a "very important", while a further 32per cent saying "somewhat important" role in the election.
The survey found that issues pertaining to perceived threats to Malay political power did not resonate in the Malay dominant constituency. Only 17per cent agreed that "Malay political power was weakened by demands made by non Malay communities after the March 8th 2008 general elections" while 74per cent felt that "Malay political power was weakened by corrupt and self serving leaders".
The Merdeka Centre said it found it difficult to ascertain the voting intention of voters in the district at the time the poll was conducted.
"Based on observations on the data collected, the survey believes that the Malay vote at the point in time the survey was conducted to be split with a small margin of voters, perhaps around 8per cent still remaining undecided. Tendencies among Chinese voters were also difficult to gauge but observations on responses towards issues indicate a slight leaning in favour of the opposition."
Leslie Lau
The Malaysian Insider
13/01/09
According to the Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research, the Malay vote was evenly split with about 8 per cent undecided, while the Chinese are leaning slightly towards Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
There were also marked differences in Malay and Chinese voters' sentiment. The Malays, who make up a majority in the constituency, appeared to see Islam as a major issue, while the Chinese, considered an important swing vote, consider equality an important factor.
A majority of Malay respondents did not feel there were any threats to their community's political dominance, even after the results of the general election last March. Instead the Malay voters appeared to be more concerned with the corruption of political leaders.
While this Saturday's poll will not make any significant difference to the balance of power in Parliament, it is considered crucial for PR to reinvigorate its flagging momentum while Barisan Nasional (BN) will want to press home a victory to reinforce its believe that it has recovered from the poor results of the last general election.
The Merdeka Centre survey found that a majority of voters in the Malay-majority constituency felt that things in the country and state of Terengganu were headed in the right direction.
But a significant number of respondents also felt that a win for a non-BN candidate could send a signal to the government for change.
However, upon closer scrutiny the survey found that Chinese voter sentiments were more subdued, with respect to the direction of the country, only 36per cent of Chinese respondents agreed that it was in "the right direction" and were split at 50per cent with respect to the direction of the state of Terengganu.
At the same time, 70per cent of Malay voters said that "things were in the right direction" for the state of Terengganu.
When given a list of issues that they feel government should pay attention to, respondents chose "controlling inflation" (21per cent), "strengthening the position of Islam" (26per cent) and "bringing continued development" (16per cent) as most important. Among Chinese voters however, 51per cent wanted the government "to treat non-Malay communities more fairly" and a further 11per cent cited "fighting corruption".
"Reflecting perhaps the developments surrounding the selection of the respective contesting candidates, the survey found that voters were more intense in considering candidate quality over other factors such as issues, contesting parties or party leaders," the Merdeka Centre said in a press release accompanying the results of the survey.
The survey was conducted by telephone with 527 registered voters. A total of 408 of the respondents were Malays while 119 were Chinese. The poll was conducted between January 7 and January 11.
The survey found that 80per cent of voters remarked candidate quality as "very important" as opposed to 59per cent and 71per cent for current issues and party capability, respectively.
Among the Chinese respondents however, the issue of fair treatment for non-Bumiputras appeared to have strong currency.
75per cent strongly or somewhat agreed that by electing a non-BN candidate, the community could send a strong signal to the BN ruling government.
To another question, 56per cent of Chinese respondents and 46per cent of Malay respondents agreed that voting for the Pakatan Rakyat could push the BN government to "correct itself".
The issue of Hudud captured the notice of only one-half of the Chinese voters in Kuala Terengganu. Only 18per cent of the Chinese voters interviewed remarked that the issue plays a "very important", while a further 32per cent saying "somewhat important" role in the election.
The survey found that issues pertaining to perceived threats to Malay political power did not resonate in the Malay dominant constituency. Only 17per cent agreed that "Malay political power was weakened by demands made by non Malay communities after the March 8th 2008 general elections" while 74per cent felt that "Malay political power was weakened by corrupt and self serving leaders".
The Merdeka Centre said it found it difficult to ascertain the voting intention of voters in the district at the time the poll was conducted.
"Based on observations on the data collected, the survey believes that the Malay vote at the point in time the survey was conducted to be split with a small margin of voters, perhaps around 8per cent still remaining undecided. Tendencies among Chinese voters were also difficult to gauge but observations on responses towards issues indicate a slight leaning in favour of the opposition."
Leslie Lau
The Malaysian Insider
13/01/09
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