Upheaval in UMNO

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, during his 22 years in office, became synonymous with the Malaysian boom which he helped create. His unfailing defense of Malaysia’s interests, particularly against Western organizations, groups or governments has been cause for much relish and approval elsewhere in the world.

The shock felt in Malaysia at his sudden decision to quit the ruling party — the United Malay National Organization (UMNO) — which he led for so long, because of his difference with the present leader and prime minister, Abdullah Badawi, is very real.

Following UMNO’s mauling at the polls two months ago, it is taken as proof that there is something seriously wrong in the country. Former prime ministers do not, after all, usually quit the parties they have led and remolded unless something is seriously wrong.

But highly regarded though Mahathir is throughout the Muslim world, Malaysians may respond differently. He understandably wants to protect his legacy and has been acerbic in his attacks on Badawi for, in his view, undermining the success story he — Mahathir — created.

The Malaysian public, however, may be unlikely to view favorably his attempt to distance himself from his party’s failure, seeing him as much a part of the old order with which they are increasingly disillusioned as they are with the present leadership. After all, despite his allegations of party corruption, UMNO has not changed much since he stepped down.

Moreover, is it fair to heap all the blame on Badawi whom he personally handpicked as his successor? Inflation, one of the causes of the ruling party’s drop in popularity, is a worldwide phenomenon. As for ethnic tensions, the seeds were there waiting to burst onto the scene long before Badawi took over.

Mahathir is not the first major political figure to walk out of UMNO. Half a century ago, its founder, Dato Onn Jaafar, did exactly the same — only to end up on the political sidelines. That could happen to Mahathir. He has said that he will return only when Badawi is removed from office. Quite clearly this is a move to force Badawi out.

But Badawi will not go quietly — and he has his supporters in the party. This could split UMNO. That would destroy its chances at the next election, especially with the opposition Justice Party ably led by former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim breathing down its neck and waiting to take over.

The prospect is probably sufficient to prevent an immediate move within UMNO to ditch Badawi but he is not popular and the party’s MPs are bound to look to their own interests first. It is a fair possibility that, come the next election, Badawi will be gone as leader.

That would open the door for Mahathir’s return — but to what sort of party? And by then, will anyone be interested in him or it? Mahathir has fired the first shots in a political war that is perhaps unavoidable given UMNO’s failing popularity but is, nonetheless, likely to be extremely damaging. What all this will do to his political legacy is anyone’s guess.