However, this will still be 12 seats short of a takeover of the federal government to which the opposition coalition aspires.
Addressing a packed audience at a seminar at Monash University in Sunway today, Wong, who is also a member of Bersih 2.0 steering committee, said the expected swing is due to the BN government's reaction to the rally, which changed sentiments in 55 'marginal seats'.
"Bersih 2.0 may increase the chances for Pakatan in 20 seats won (marginally) by BN and strengthen Pakatan's position in 33 of its marginal seats," he said of findings based on voter demographic and electoral outcomes from the 2008 general election and subsequent parliamentary by-elections.
The same effect is expected in the Independent-held seats of Wangsa Maju, Nibong Tebal and Bayan Baru, which are located in urban areas in Kuala Lumpur and Penang respectively.
Wong also anticipates that Ibrahim Ali will lose his Pasir Mas seat in Kelantan.
"Demographically it was a dangerous seat (for PSM) but the detention has benefitted Jeyakumar, in terms of sympathy votes. He will see a return of Indian support to get a more convincing win," he told Malaysiakini after the seminar today.
He defined opposition marginal seats as those won by a margin of within 10 percent, while BN marginal seats were won with a margin within 10 percent, 15 percent, or those with more than 28.57 percent Chinese voters.
1 comment:
I went to the Post Office to register to vote; and upon checking my identity card, the Post officer asked which religion I belonged to. Why? I do not know. Therefore, we must reform the Department of Religion. Right now, only Islam is recognised as the religion in the Department of Religion. Therefore we need reforms. We need to divide the Department of Religion into two branches: one branch to deal with Muslim Affairs, and another branch to deal with non-Muslim Affairs.
Another alternative is to persuade the Malays to separate Penang Island from Peninsular Malaysia. It may be that non-Muslims are the majority in Penang. More and more non-Muslims from Peninsular Malaysia should be encouraged to relocate to Penang. Once Penang becomes a non-Muslim majority state, then the Penangites can ask for greater autonomy from KL. Penang should be allowed to make its own laws for itself. I think the Malays should be happy if more non-Malays relocate to Penang. An increase in non-Malays in Penang will result in a decrease in non-Malays in Peninsular Malaysia; and therefore Malays should be happy. Malays should encourage non-Muslims to relocate to Penang. Since Singapore is a non-Muslim majority nation, Penang should also become a non-Muslim majority state. The non-Muslim citizens need a hub and space of their own; and the hub and space would be Penang. Those non-Muslim citizens who are unwilling to accept a second class citizen status inside Peninsular Malaysia should relocate to Penang Island.
If you are non-Muslim Malaysian and do feel socially, politically, or economically shortchanged, then stop complaining and fretting. Do something. Instead of fretting and complaining, please make arrangements to relocate to Penang. If you have non-Muslim friends who fret and complain, then immediately persuade them to relocate to Penang.
If you are non-Muslim Malaysian and do feel socially, politically, or economically shortchanged, then stop complaining and fretting. If non-Muslim taxpayers feel shortchanged, then stop the sweating, brooding, complaining, and having nightmares. There is a solution to the nightmares and depression. Do something. Please relocate to Penang.
If non-Muslims feel that Muslim Malaysians, as taxpayers, are having a parasitical relations with non-Muslim Malaysians, then the non-Muslims must do something. What should non-Muslims do to thwart the parasitical relations with Muslim Malaysians? If you are non-Muslim, please relocate to Penang Island. The solution is relocate to Penang Island; and the Muslim Malaysians also should encourage non-Muslim Malaysians to relocate to Penang.
If the non-Muslims are opposed to the "ketuanan Melayu" ideology, then they should relocate to Penang.
Firstly, I have utmost respect for the many Malays who are so kind. However, there are some Malays who feel that the Malay forefathers made a big mistake about 100 to 150 years ago by allowing Chinese and Indian immigrants into Malaya in large numbers. What happened about 100 to 150 years ago is irreversible. That's the Malay perpective. Well, there are Malaysian citizens of Chinese and Indian ancestry who feel that their forefathers also made a big mistake relocating to Malaya. What happened about 100 to 150 years ago is irreversible. Now, just as the Malays have to tolerate non-Malays, the non-Malays have to tolerate the Malays too. There is a solution. The non-Muslims in Peninsular Malaysia should relocate to Penang. The Malays should encourage non-Muslims to relocate to Penang. It's a win-win.
Please make sure you go to the nearest Post Office to register to vote. Please exercise your right to vote.
If you do agree with me, please copy and remail it to whom it may concern. Those who receive it must in turn copy and remail it to whom it may concern. Let’s get the word around to as many people as possible. Let’s see what happens.
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