Power still hangs in the balance, poll shows
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 11 — If general elections were held today, Barisan Nasional (BN) can expect a real run for their money from Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in Peninsular Malaysia, with the ruling coalition’s victory almost entirely dependent on non-partisan Chinese and Indians, a new survey shows.
The poll also confirms that while BN has steady support among the Malay electorate, the Chinese vote bank and to a lesser extent the Indian support is with the opposition.
With more than 100 mixed parliamentary constituencies in West Malaysia, any political party with ambitions of snaring the lion’s share of seats must be able to appeal to Malays and non-Malays alike.
These findings should serve as a wake-up call to Umno, which has in the past few months sought to win the Malay vote at all cost, resulting in the perception that it has become more right-wing and antagonistic towards minorities.
The survey shows that while BN scored higher than PR in all the categories, a sizeable number of undecided voters show an inclination towards the Opposition. They are mostly non-Malays and live in urban areas.
Some 1,000 registered voters were polled by Vox Malaysia in mid-August (after the death of Teoh Beng Hock but before the cow-head demonstration against the relocation of a Hindu temple in Shah Alam).
The respondents were asked questions to gauge the public perception of the opposition today — more than 17 months after it wrested control of five states and prevented BN from obtaining its customary two-thirds majority in Parliament.
When answers to the questions were analysed, it showed that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his comrades have their work cut out between now and the next general elections, scheduled for 2013.
They may occupy the seat of power and may have the track record of ruling the country for 52 years but clearly there is growing ambivalence about the coalition.
Some 45 per cent of those polled said they trusted BN to govern country, compared with 21 per cent for PR. But up for grabs are the 28 per cent who said they did not trust either party.
In the last general election and in by-elections within Peninsular Malaysia since March 8 2008, a significant proportion of voters in this undecided/jaded category gave their votes to the opposition.
For example in Permatang Pasir, only 16 per cent of Chinese voters in the constituency indicated in a poll that they would vote for the Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) candidate, with the rest unwilling to state their preference openly.
On polling day, the PAS candidate Salleh Man obtained 75 per cent of the Chinese vote.
The survey showed that 63 per cent of Malays said they trusted BN more to govern the country, compared with 16 per cent for PR.
But only 11 per cent of Chinese and 14 per cent of Indians trusted BN to govern the country, compared with 31 per cent of Chinese and 28 per cent of Indians for PR.
Some 46 per cent of Chinese and 47 per cent of Indian voters fall into the jaded category.
Interestingly, 39 per cent of those polled said they would be very worried or angry if PR won the next general elections and governed the country while 57 per cent could live with PR governing the country.
Respondents to the poll were also asked which coalition would win and govern the country if the GE was held today.
Some 48 per cent said that BN would win, while 30 per cent predicted a Pakatan Rakyat victory.
A significant 22 per cent were non-committal. Nearly 50 per cent of those non-committed/jaded voters are Chinese and 13 per cent are Indians. Going by the voting pattern since March 8 2008, the majority of voters in this category are likely to support PR candidates.
Of those who predicted a BN win, 86 per cent were Malays, 11 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians.
Of those who predicted a PR victory, 49 per cent were Malays, 35 per cent were Chinese and 16 per cent were Indians.
MI
11/09/09
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 11 — If general elections were held today, Barisan Nasional (BN) can expect a real run for their money from Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in Peninsular Malaysia, with the ruling coalition’s victory almost entirely dependent on non-partisan Chinese and Indians, a new survey shows.
The poll also confirms that while BN has steady support among the Malay electorate, the Chinese vote bank and to a lesser extent the Indian support is with the opposition.
With more than 100 mixed parliamentary constituencies in West Malaysia, any political party with ambitions of snaring the lion’s share of seats must be able to appeal to Malays and non-Malays alike.
These findings should serve as a wake-up call to Umno, which has in the past few months sought to win the Malay vote at all cost, resulting in the perception that it has become more right-wing and antagonistic towards minorities.
The survey shows that while BN scored higher than PR in all the categories, a sizeable number of undecided voters show an inclination towards the Opposition. They are mostly non-Malays and live in urban areas.
Some 1,000 registered voters were polled by Vox Malaysia in mid-August (after the death of Teoh Beng Hock but before the cow-head demonstration against the relocation of a Hindu temple in Shah Alam).
The respondents were asked questions to gauge the public perception of the opposition today — more than 17 months after it wrested control of five states and prevented BN from obtaining its customary two-thirds majority in Parliament.
When answers to the questions were analysed, it showed that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and his comrades have their work cut out between now and the next general elections, scheduled for 2013.
They may occupy the seat of power and may have the track record of ruling the country for 52 years but clearly there is growing ambivalence about the coalition.
Some 45 per cent of those polled said they trusted BN to govern country, compared with 21 per cent for PR. But up for grabs are the 28 per cent who said they did not trust either party.
In the last general election and in by-elections within Peninsular Malaysia since March 8 2008, a significant proportion of voters in this undecided/jaded category gave their votes to the opposition.
For example in Permatang Pasir, only 16 per cent of Chinese voters in the constituency indicated in a poll that they would vote for the Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) candidate, with the rest unwilling to state their preference openly.
On polling day, the PAS candidate Salleh Man obtained 75 per cent of the Chinese vote.
The survey showed that 63 per cent of Malays said they trusted BN more to govern the country, compared with 16 per cent for PR.
But only 11 per cent of Chinese and 14 per cent of Indians trusted BN to govern the country, compared with 31 per cent of Chinese and 28 per cent of Indians for PR.
Some 46 per cent of Chinese and 47 per cent of Indian voters fall into the jaded category.
Interestingly, 39 per cent of those polled said they would be very worried or angry if PR won the next general elections and governed the country while 57 per cent could live with PR governing the country.
Respondents to the poll were also asked which coalition would win and govern the country if the GE was held today.
Some 48 per cent said that BN would win, while 30 per cent predicted a Pakatan Rakyat victory.
A significant 22 per cent were non-committal. Nearly 50 per cent of those non-committed/jaded voters are Chinese and 13 per cent are Indians. Going by the voting pattern since March 8 2008, the majority of voters in this category are likely to support PR candidates.
Of those who predicted a BN win, 86 per cent were Malays, 11 per cent Chinese and 4 per cent Indians.
Of those who predicted a PR victory, 49 per cent were Malays, 35 per cent were Chinese and 16 per cent were Indians.
MI
11/09/09
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