Total electorate – 25882
| Election Year | Voted | BN | Indep | PR | SAPP | Total Oppos-ition votes | BN / Opposition difference | Malay Muslim % of electorate | Chinese % of electorate | Others % of electorate |
| 2008 | 15250 | 9479 | 5771 | - | - | 5771 | 3708 | 59 | 38 | 2.7 |
| 2010 | 15218 | 9773 | - | 3414 | 2031 | 5445 | 4328 | |||
|
| Net change |
| 620 |
KEY OBSERVATIONS
A) The total who voted remained stable – 15250 in 2008 compared to 15218 in 2010
B) BN received 306 more votes in 2010
C) Total votes the opposition obtained was slightly less at 5445 in 2010 compared to 5771 in 2008 – a difference of 306.
D) Voting pattern is stable
CONCLUSIONS
A) The views of the electorate in the rural areas are fairly stable except for a small number of swing voters
B) When there is a 3 cornered fight, the votes to either of the opposition candidates do not come from BN’s vote bank. The two opposition candidates just split the votes already in the opposition bank. See how predictable that is the 5771 votes of 2008 for the opposition just split to the PR and SAPP with a small loss of 306 to BN, but no gain to the opposition.
C) The probability of a BN win goes up significantly in a 3 cornered fight. The majority went up to 6359 in this by election compared to 3708 in 2008
D) The additional mud that gets slung on to both the opposition candidates and the associated reduction of focus on BN further raises the probability of a BN win, may explain the swing of 306 votes to BN.
D) Swing votes may not matter much in constituencies in a direct contest where there has been no major issues in the constituencies and where the margin in the previous election was large.
E) Swing votes will make a difference in a direct contest where the margin was small in the previous elections.
IMPLICATIONS TO PAKATAN
Pakatan must avoid 3 cornered contests if it wants to get to Putrajaya. Other wise they will never make it – NEVER!
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