Bersih 3.0 vs Umno 66th anniversary
It looks like Prime Minister Najib Razak has decided to come down
hard on the Bersih 3.0 rally, as he did to last year’s Bersih 2.0.
Again, it is a bid to show his grip on the nation but this time, the
stakes are higher with his Umno party’s 66th anniversary celebration due
to begin from May 1 to May 13.
Already, thugs accused of being linked to Umno have begun the
scare-mongering by beating student protesters, not sparing even the
girls with their roughness. This was followed up by the Kuala Lumpur
City Hall refusing to grant Bersih 3.0 approval for its April 28 rally
at the Dataran Merdeka.
And as expected, the police stood by and watched, doing the minimal
to stop the ruffians although the Inspector General of Police has
threatened to come down hard on those who broke the law. IGP Ismail
Omar’s message, it appears, is meant only for those who do not support
Umno-BN.
A historic stopping of the clock at Parliament to ram through 8 bills
has also stirred worry. What is happening, are there hidden clauses
that the BN wants to push through to further strengthen its hand ahead
of the 13th general election? Maybe. It might also be that BN wants to
clear as much of its in-tray as possible before dissolving Parliament.
The ‘dates’ are out
The rush to push through the bills led to speculation that Najib
might dissolve Parliament on April 23, but with the Dewan Negara due to
sit until May 10 to ratify the bills, or these will have to be gazetted
again, that rumor has now been safely debunked.
Yet pundits are betting that Parliament will be dissolved anytime
between May 16 to May 23 and balloting to take place between June 9 to
June 18.
This despite the recent swirl of negative publicity hitting several
top Umno leaders, with Rural minister Shafie Apdal the latest to get
into hot soup over a sex scandal and Najib himself put on a French
court’s witness list in the Scorpenes acquisition corruption trial.
Adding to Najib’s woes is a master-stroke by Opposition Leader Anwar
Ibrahim, who earlier this week riled Umno when he announced that
Selangor will not be holding concurrent polls with the BN in GE-13. Not
until an audit of the electoral roll is carried out.
“I think Najib is committed to a mid June date. For Selangor, the
electoral roll is so badly tampered with they would be crazy to play to
Umno’s tune. One way or another, they will insist on a clean up,” PKR
vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.
“Of course, this will take wind out of Najib’s sails. Even if he wins
GE-13, without Selangor in the bag, he is at risk of being toppled at
the Umno internal election. As for Penang, Kedah and Kelantan, the
respective chief ministers have not decided yet. They may or may not
join Selangor.”
Room to change his mind
One of the reasons cited for Najib’s urgency to hold snap polls has
been that the Umno-led government was running short of funds after
distributing a recent slew of cash aids to gain favour with voters in
GE-13.
Another oft-cited reason is that Najib must ‘somehow’ hold GE-13
before the Umno internal polls – which must be held by October. That
basis for that is that the party warlords (i.e. the division and branch
leaders) want to get their hands on the allocations reserved for
operating the election machinery. If they waited after the Umno
elections, they may get booted out and this loss of largesse would spur
them into sabotaging the BN’s chances in GE-13.
Yet taking all into consideration, Najib has room to change his mind.
The government can still raise local bonds to stay afloat, bankruptcy
is not yet at the door although it is not far. In fact, GE-13 is
probably not only the most dirty election ever but it will probably cost
the most. Some say thousands of billions are stake and they are
referring to control of the government’s huge stakes in GLCs such as
Telekom and Tenaga.
According to some pundits, this is why Najib has been promising the
moon and the sky to some of the most wealthy investors including former
prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and former finance minister Daim
Zainuddin. Najib needs to assure them that their interests will be
protected and for their monopoly on the country’s wealth to continue,
Najib has to pursue right-wing Malay-supremacy policies. Otherwise, he
would not be able to maintain the existing snatch-and-grab
socio-economic system painstakingly built by Mahathir during his
22-years in power.
As for internal sabotage, it does not really matter. For example,
Najib can choose to hold GE-13 in November or even in 2013. By then,
those who lost in the Umno polls would already be forgotten entities, or
harmless at any rate. What Najib must ensure is that he has the loyalty
of those who win in the Umno polls, which is where his list of
‘winnable’ candidates kicks in. With the power to have the last say on
who to field in GE-13, Najib can easily make certain that those who win
office in the Umno polls will be ‘his men’.
The big 66
What may be driving the pundits’ and the Pakatan’s belief that GE-13
will be held in June is the extraordinary scale of the Umno’s 66th
anniversary celebrations. On May 11, he has called on 1 million Umno
members to show themselves at a grand function to be held in the Bukit
Jalil stadium. Such costly mobilization and the willingness to spend on
the event is certainly not a clue to be ignored.
Whether or not Najib announces his decision to dissolve Parliament on
that May 11 night really depends on 2 events. One is of course the
crowd size in the Bukit Jalil stadium itself. Will 1 million Umno
members come and heed his call for a show of support? Given the freebies
involved, the answer is likely.
The other event will be the April 28 Bersih 3.0 rally. Will it take
off as the organizers have planned. Bersih has announced a total
nationwide target crowd-size of 500,000. Pundits are saying, if even
100,000 turn up, then Najib will be shifting his GE-13 target date to
September, and from there, he may even shift it further to 2013.
Only a fool …
To be frank, all the analysis and number crunching may seem
convincing. But really, it would be a fool who would believe, and it has
to be a moron who would need such elephantine preparations just to make
a decision.
Numbers are only meaningful if obtained neutrally. Ask any
researcher. With the police already coming down harder each day on
Bersih and driving away participants, Najib might succeed in showing
Umno that he is still the most popular man in Malaysia. And with all the
free transport, lodging, ‘makan’, door gifts and possibly cash
allowances, it would be a slap in the face if Najib failed to get the 1
million Umno members into Bukit Jalil.
But so what? Aren’t these numbers ‘faked’, so to speak. Why should he
expect the same trend at the ballot boxes? For example, without the
same source of financial support, the Umno-backed Himpun anti-apostasy
rally for 1 million Muslims drew only 3,000 to 5,000 supporters. Also
without the same finances and amid harsh police control, 50,000
Malaysians still managed to suddenly crop up in the heart of Kuala
Lumpur to take part in the July 9 Bersih 2.0 rally.
So, like surveys, numbers are deceptive. Najib might be a vain and
foolish leader. But perhaps, he is also banking on this sleight of hand
or imagery – that he can command 1 million and Bersih 3.0 only tens of
thousands – to win GE-13.
Current state of support
It is a psy-war but does psychology really work? Only Malaysians can give the answer on the day of the balloting.
For now, the sentiment amongst the Chinese is clear. Come what may,
they will stick with Pakatan in GE-13. For the Indians, it is less
obvious. In Sabah and Sarawak, the winds of change may be blowing but
again, it is hard to gauge if the desire for reform can outstrip the
greed for cash that will surely be offered in exchange for their votes.
And lastly, for the Malays – the largest electorate group – how will
they vote this time? Will they buy Najib’s imagery of strength, will
they succumb to the false calls for unity and their own selfishness for
supremacy against the other races?
Or will they plumb for fresh air, space and the chance to narrow the
wealth gap with the Umnoputras (the select percentile who have benefited
from Umno’s corrupt rule such as the party bigwigs and their cronies)?
It’s still the Malay vote that is undecided
The Malay and the Chinese psyche are quite different. The Chinese
tend to be more clear-minded and less emotional. They can and will see
through Najib’s 1 million Malays ‘David Copperfield’ illusion. Yet, they
are capable of biting back their disgust and voting for the BN – which
they did until 2008. However, in 2012 or even 2013, the Chinese can
still be counted on to roll the dice once more for the Pakatan because
they know this is the best ever opportunity to break the BN’s
stranglehold.
The Malays are more emotional. A successful 1 million Malays rally
will bring a tear to many eyes. Yet by being emotional, the
righteousness inherent in the Malay makeup may spur them to reject the
out-of-control corruption and madness that is necessarily part and
parcel of Umno rule.
Umno is owned by vested interest and to keep these interests in
power, the only way is to continue on a path that is illogical, a path
of racism, religious bigotry and backwardness totally out of sync with
the rest of the world. The Malays know it. The thing is, will they still
give Umno one more chance. It’s much like giving an addict another shot
of heroin just because you feel sorry for him. But should you?
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