Malaysia's struggling leader is facing a new and serious challenge after opposition chief Anwar Ibrahim's dramatic claim that he is supported by enough government defectors to seize power.
Analysts said turmoil in Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's ruling coalition could hasten an exodus of potliticians and propel Anwar to power after last month's stunning general election gains by the opposition alliance.
Anwar, the former deputy prime minister who was sacked and jailed a decade ago, on Monday said he had enough support to form a government but would not act until he had a more comfortable majority.
"Yes, we have enough MPs to topple the government," he told reporters after police broke up the rally, which drew more than 10,000 supporters to celebrate the end of his ban from politics.
"We are saying here for the first time that we are ready (to rule).
"But we will only enter when the majority is comfortable. When we take over we want to initiate the move. Do we want to be a government with a two or five-seat majority?"
The Pakatan Rakyat opposition alliance claimed more than a third of parliamentary seats and five states in the polls, an unprecedented blow for the Barisan Nasional coalition which has governed for half a century.
Abdullah faces growing demands to quit, but has defiantly claimed a mandate to rule and refused to discuss a succession plan until after his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) internal leadership polls in December.
Anwar has said that coalition politicians from Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneo island have approached him about switching sides, but so far none has declared their intentions publicly.
"It is true MPs are waiting to jump. They will do it for money and power," said James Chin, political science professor with Monash University's Kuala Lumpur campus.
"We have seen it happening in Sabah in 1994 and in Kelantan in 1977," he said, referring to when opposition politicians crossed over to the Barisan Nasional coalition to allow it rule the states.
Chin said coalition MPs would defect because of the infighting in UMNO and uncertainty over Abdullah's leadership.
"Abdullah is fighting for his political life and Anwar is pouring oil into the fire by stating that he has enough defectors to form the next government."
Anwar, 60, is free to run for office again from today after the expiry of a five-year ban imposed when he was convicted of corruption. Anwar spent six years in jail before storming back to prominence in the March elections.
He had been expected to re-enter parliament quickly through a by-election in one of the seats held by his Keadilan party, but says he is in no hurry to act and will instead focus on building up the opposition.
Tricia Yeoh from the Centre for Public Policy Studies said Anwar was highlighting his ability to form the government in order to "inject in people's mind that there can be an alternate government."
"My gut feeling says yes. He has been rallying support in East Malaysia. It will be risky for him to lie," she said, when asked if he had enough support to take power.
Yeoh said that under Abdullah, the coalition had no political direction.
"The Barisan Nasional is like a ship being tossed on the high seas. We do not know who is the captain."
However, Domestic Trade Minister Shahril Samad dismissed Anwar's claims, saying he was not aware of any coalition lawmakers planning to jump.
"Not as far as I know," he said.
Timbon Herbert Lagadan, a state assemblyman from Sabah, said Anwar's comments were merely "political rhetoric."
"I don't think he will get MPs from Sabah or Sarawak to join him," he said.
"Anwar is a man who cannot be trusted. He promised development for Sabah when he was deputy prime minister and finance minister but he failed to deliver."
Meanwhile, a party official on Tuesday said police were investigating Anwar's wife and three others for taking part in the rally where the politician claimed he was close to toppling the government.
Anwar's wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, who is the president of his People's Justice Party, and three other party members were served early today with notices to report to police for investigation of illegal assembly, said Tian Chua, a senior party official.
Police abruptly halted the rally midway through Anwar's speech, triggering loud jeers from the crowd. Police said the rally was illegal because Anwar's party did not have a permit, which is needed for gatherings of more than four people.
Chua said the party members did not plan to report to police today as the notices demanded, and that they would "find another appropriate date".
He had been expected to re-enter parliament quickly through a by-election in one of the seats held by his Keadilan party, but says he is in no hurry to act and will instead focus on building up the opposition.
Tricia Yeoh from the Centre for Public Policy Studies said Anwar was highlighting his ability to form the government in order to "inject in people's mind that there can be an alternate government."
"My gut feeling says yes. He has been rallying support in East Malaysia. It will be risky for him to lie," she said, when asked if he had enough support to take power.
Yeoh said that under Abdullah, the coalition had no political direction.
"The Barisan Nasional is like a ship being tossed on the high seas. We do not know who is the captain."
However, Domestic Trade Minister Shahril Samad dismissed Anwar's claims, saying he was not aware of any coalition lawmakers planning to jump.
"Not as far as I know," he said.
Timbon Herbert Lagadan, a state assemblyman from Sabah, said Anwar's comments were merely "political rhetoric."
"I don't think he will get MPs from Sabah or Sarawak to join him," he said.
"Anwar is a man who cannot be trusted. He promised development for Sabah when he was deputy prime minister and finance minister but he failed to deliver."
Meanwhile, a party official on Tuesday said police were investigating Anwar's wife and three others for taking part in the rally where the politician claimed he was close to toppling the government.
Anwar's wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, who is the president of his People's Justice Party, and three other party members were served early today with notices to report to police for investigation of illegal assembly, said Tian Chua, a senior party official.
Police abruptly halted the rally midway through Anwar's speech, triggering loud jeers from the crowd. Police said the rally was illegal because Anwar's party did not have a permit, which is needed for gatherings of more than four people.
Chua said the party members did not plan to report to police today as the notices demanded, and that they would "find another appropriate date".
AFP, AP
Sydney Morning Herald
PEOPLE'S POWER
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