FACE TO FACE: Dr Bridget Welsh

There remain important concerns about the electoral process in Malaysia, namely the lack of independence of the Electoral Commission, lack of transparency in the voting roll, continued reports of phantom and “clone” voting, use of state resources in campaigning and vote buying.

Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob is a trained lawyer and Malaysian political commentator. He writes for numerous international newspapers and online journals as well as hosts Face to Face, an interview segment of Malaysian/regional issues and personalities hosted on Malaysia Today. He also serves as Foreign Correspondent for foreign news organisations.

Dr. Bridget Welsh,is Assistant Professor in Southeast Asian Studies at Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington DC. Crisscrossing Malaysia, she observed the recently concluded general elections. Face to Face gets her point of view on the issues affecting Malaysians.

1. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: What to your mind was the defining element that set apart this Malaysian general election from other elections held in the past?
Bridget Welsh: By far, this election has given ordinary Malaysians a feeling of empowerment. The process of collectively registered concerns as Malaysians – rather than as Malays, Chinese, Indians, Kadazans, Ibans etc – have inspired Malaysians to look toward the future and believe in themselves and each other. The only historical Malaysian parallel is the first election in 1959, in which the Merdeka Generation joined together to embrace the right to vote in post-independence Malaysia.

2. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: The Rakyat (People) have spoken- 5 States are under opposition party control, the BN has been denied the 2/3 majority in Parliament. Thus, how does Malaysia fare in the region, generally speaking in terms of its practice of democracy?
Bridget Welsh: Elections are only one component of democratic governance. While the opposition has made gains through a free vote, it is a mistake to say that the gains can be equated with a fair process. There remain important concerns about the electoral process in Malaysia, namely the lack of independence of the Electoral Commission, lack of transparency in the voting roll, continued reports of phantom and “clone” voting, use of state resources in campaigning and vote buying. These practices give advantages to the incumbent government, and, with the opposition now in power, it is in the interests of all Malaysians to address electoral reform. As attention turns to the riveting political events post-election, it is important not to forget that someone was shot on election day in Terengganu and reports of the irregularities continued. Fairness in the electoral process involves not just changes in polling, but revisiting how constituencies are distributed and drawn as well as changes in the campaign, particularly opening up the traditional forms of the media and introducing (and enforcing) campaign finance regulations.

Beyond elections, while Abdullah Badawi should be lauded for opening up the political environment in first term, issues involving the right of assembly, right to form and register organizations such as the Malaysian Dayak Congress, and checks on abuses of power/corruption by those in power need to be addressed to strengthen democracy. Malaysians have already brought these issues into the public as part of the reform agenda. The lens that many Malaysians see the issues is historical, rather than regional, and there are efforts to open the system to the pre-1969 period.

Regionally, over the past few years, democracy has suffered setbacks, with the 2006 coup in Thailand and ineffective governance and increase in human rights violations in the Philippines. Indonesia has been the regional model – ironically in light of its long authoritarian past. Recent developments to date in Malaysia signal a possible regional democratic opening. Coupled with Pakistan’s election, there is real hope that the democratic space is widening in Asia. Malaysia is an important marker of change. If the transition to a more competitive political system is managed well, Malaysia may point to a reverse of regional trends. While Malaysia is not yet on par with democratic space in Indonesia, it is far ahead of Singapore and has the potential to develop into a more effective democratic system than Thailand or the Philippines, both of which remain bogged down in elite-infighting. Moreover, Malaysia can serve as an inspiration to more closed states, such as Myanmar/Burma, by showing that change can happen.

3. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: This administration is weak. The tussle between a number of Rulers and Abdullah Badawi’s choice of appointments for Menteri Besar (Chief Minister) is unsettling to an extent. As Abdullah Badawi clings on to power, what would be the end result?
Bridget Welsh: True, Abdullah Badawi does not have a strong mandate. The March 8th elections were perceived as a victory for the opposition, since the results were beyond expectations and the opposition gains were historic records. Yet, the reality is that Abdullah Badawi’s administration still holds onto a comfortable majority. In ordinary circumstances, this majority should be more than adequate to govern.
Yet, unfortunately, for Abdullah it will be extremely difficult to govern. First, all the coalition partners in the BN have suffered electorally. The struggle for power is percolating within the BN itself, and Abdullah faces significant dissention within BN, especially UMNO. As the process moves ahead, with upcoming party elections, there will be leadership challenges in all the parties. Infighting within the BN and especially UMNO will continue. The challengers within all the parties will have strong support, although the procedures within political parties and possible delays in party elections will constrain changes from within parties. The impact will be policy paralysis, policy inconsistency, space for mavericks and protective measures by those in power to act quickly to secure their individual positions within the system, since those in government will not be sure of their positions. Expect a lack of clear direction with possible space for reform oriented initiatives led by the small cohort of reformers in the Cabinet.

Second, despite his high personal popularity and affability, Abdullah’s leadership style and many of his policies were rejected by the voters. In order to win public support, he will have to make significant changes – significant changes. The Cabinet selection sent inconsistent messages as those with perceived records of corruption remain part of the leadership. Inconsistency in messages and indecisiveness contributed to Abdullah’s electoral loss, and these practices seem to be continuing. If they continue, the direction of governance in Malaysia will be unclear and this will create unease among Malaysians and investors. Abdullah and those around him will continue to get the brunt of failure of governance. Being in the position of power will not be enough. He has to deliver reforms and improve the implementation of policies. If he does so, public opinion will change and momentum will develop. Otherwise pressure for his resignation will build. Abdullah is in a fight for his political life.

Third, a crucial issue in the administration’s weakness involves reform within the BN and UMNO’s role within it. The new Cabinet is ethnically skewed, with heavy representation from UMNO and notably Johor. The reality is that the BN would have fallen without East Malaysia, and the lack of appreciation of these states makes the BN government vulnerable. The BN needs to face the difficulty to bridging across the component parties while simultaneously bringing about a soul-searching process of reform within UMNO. To date, the blame game has characterized the post-mortem process, without serious soul-searching on what can be done to make the BN parties stronger. There is a real need to move beyond elite dialogue and reach out to the public and ordinary party members, to strengthen links with the grassroots, to strengthen the party process. Political elites will find that Malaysians still have considerable good will toward many within the BN, but want reforms; they want to be respected and listened to. They want an end to abuses of power, corruption and elite arrogance. Lacking a reconfiguration of how the BN works, and persistence of elite rule, the BN will face even more difficulties at the polls and lack of genuine public support, even from its own ranks.

This brings me to the last issue in your question, the relationship between the Rulers and the Abdullah administration. In fairness, Abdullah Badawi has opened up the system and given the Rulers more space, which they have filled. Abdullah has lost out in negotiations with Rulers from Johor and Perlis to Trengganu. He has been hampered by weakness within UMNO, electorally and his own style. This opening of the system post elections has put the powers of the Rulers center-stage, opening the potential for a reconfiguration of the powers of the Rulers as a whole. This will be played out in the future over judicial appointees. Abdullah has too many fronts of conflict ongoing to successful curb the sultans growing influence.

4. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: The global economic slowdown is expected to have a greater impact on Malaysia in 2009 and beyond. Will this scenario intensify feelings of dissatisfaction among the populace? Probability of violence?
Bridget Welsh: No question, the failings of the Abdullah administration to deliver on economic bread and butter issues contributes to the BN electoral losses. Much of the underlying causes are regional/global in nature, driven by increasing competition for investment from China and India, a weakening US dollar and declining US economy. International conditions will continue not to favour any Malaysian government. Yet, Abdullah’s has failed to appreciate the negative impact of post-1973 record inflation, low wages, and ineffective implementation of policies to improve Malaysia’s competitiveness in the areas of education, services and transaction costs. Corruption has cost Malaysia’s economy billions of ringgit. Critical ahead, will be the steps that are taken to address the underlying domestic factors that reduce Malaysia’s competitiveness. He cannot increase prices by reducing subsidies and thereby increasing inflation and prices without regaining faith in the electorate and pushing the economy forward. Subsidy removal would potentially lead to peaceful demonstrations and a further reduction of support for Abdullah. (The Malaysian public does not use violence as a means of protests. Violence is only possible if the police adopt a confrontation approach toward peaceful demonstrations or elites stir up protests for political ends. With the media more open, these latter measures are more difficult.) So, yes, dissatisfaction will increase with economic problems, but these can be mitigated by effective policy responses. This requires more substantive changes in Abdullah’s economic team, notably removal of individuals who remain tainted with corruption and losses of taxpayer funds.
One important wrench in this economic discussion is the NEP. The reality is that the NEP as implemented reduces Malaysia’s international competitiveness. It has a mixed record in addressing poverty and social advancement among Malays, with the greatest gains in the 1970s when the focus was on increasing educational opportunities and strengthening entrepreneurship with capital for small businessman. The need for reforming the measures for addresses the social safety net across races is part of the reform process ahead. Moving beyond the NEP as implemented now is essential for addressing the needs of Malays as well as other communities, as well as illustrating that Malaysia is able to be proactive in promoting competitiveness. Abdullah’s deepening of the NEP during his administration weakened him since it neither satisfied the Malays, non-Malays or international investors.

5. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: It appears as if UMNO members are in a state of flux. What in your opinion, does UMNO need to do now? Does this spell the end of the reign of UMNO?
Bridget Welsh: UMNO needs to decide its own future and this is a crossroads for the party. At stake is the party’s leadership and identity. The party needs serious soul-searching, not just among the leaders, but with its members and the broader society. Recall the election refrain “ABU” – Anything But UMNO. The position of the party nationally has reached a record historic low. The first step is to move from telling to listening. This should be a massive effort and include a national meeting. The problem of UMNO party identity is deeply rooted, however, since the three questions ahead – continued relevance of racial identity as a means for political mobilization when Malays are now in the demographic majority and have a secure hold on political power, the use of money politics and financial incentives as rewards for members, and the need for party leaders to have a national rather than parochial self-interest – are on the table. The key is discussion, not denial. There are many talented people within UMNO and Malaysia as a whole who can foster healthy discussion. It is desperately needed.

6. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: Let’s talk about the opposition. Can they well and truly live up to their incredible election promises? Will this already loose knit coalition hold out into the next term?
Bridget Welsh: Many of the national opposition promises cannot be delivered since they lack national power – e.g. many of PKR’s promises of reducing subsidies. As an opposition at the national level, their role will likely continue to be primarily agenda-setting and watch-dog. The difference at the national level will be when they form a shadow Cabinet, which will allow opposition parliamentarians to greater develop expertise in policy areas, enrich the policy debate and offer more solutions to the challenges facing ahead. The debate in parliament has to move beyond name-calling, which the opposition plays a role in with the BN.

The opposition’s delivery of promises will be at the state level. The two key states here will be Kelantan and Penang, where the stronger majorities will allow more space for implementation. Leaders in both states will have to deliver on a common opposition wide agenda, from investment in these regions to local elections. If the focus is on maintaining power, rather than illustrating a common purpose in better governance, pressure on and within the opposition as a whole will result. Forging, articulating and building consensus common positions within the opposition will be crucial. The differences in the opposition are well known (Islamic state, Chinese chauvinism) and continue to be serious, thus the need for building a common base of policies.

The problematic areas for delivery are in the opposition states with thinner majorities – Perak, Kedah and Selangor. There the work will be harder for the opposition and promises more difficult to deliver. If the federal government continues to hold/reduce funding for opposition states –which it has done so already – it will only hurt the people in these states, not the opposition and decrease the country’s overall competitiveness. A petty blame game will result in which citizens will lose. This needs to be avoided by national-oriented leadership in both the BN and opposition. The opposition as a whole faces the struggle of resources and need to work with the federal government to solve real problems that people face, from transportation in Penang to investment in Perak.

Another key issue will be the power of personalities and lack of experience within the opposition. The opposition is comprised of individuals committed to change. They are talented in raising the problems, not the solutions. They are used to criticizing, not compromising effectively. The entire mindset of people in “opposition government” – many young people who like many in the BN are committed to Malaysia’s future – will have to change. It will require time and an appreciation that the decision-makers are the Malaysian people, the voters. So, in short, the opposition will hold, if the opposition leaders and members as well as the public push for compromise within the opposition and with the BN and offer solutions to problems. The opposition will have to be reminded that it was the people who put them in power and who can vote them out.

7. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: Can Anwar Ibrahim claim the prize of being Prime Minister? What in your view are his weaknesses at this stage.
Bridget Welsh: The reality is that Anwar Ibrahim has re-emerged as a major contender for power. His rise will depend on the success of the opposition working together, the ability of the BN to reform (thereby reducing his chances) and his acumen in promoting compromise. Anwar Ibrahim faces a few key weaknesses – 1) the political opposition is fragmented and he is weakened by its divisions and the weakness of the opposition – inexperience – noted above. 2) Despite his comeback, Anwar still has a trust deficit among non-Malays who criticize his policies while in the BN (education and Islamization) and now has a trust deficit within the Malay community (in that he is seen by some as violating interests of the Malay community through changes in NEP). He will need to continually address these areas. 3) He lacks resources for his party. The opposition as a whole is now completely overstretched. Thus, a critical issue ahead in fulfilling promises is to build the policy capability of all parties.

8. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: It looks as if race is still a dominant feature post-election. With Malays protesting against the abolition of parts of the NEP/or in Toto and Chinese voters having a completely different world view of the issues. Where is this all heading towards? Will there be or rather what should be the common platform for all the ethnic races?
Bridget Welsh: This will take time. Even PKR which professes multiracialism adopted a quiet racial agenda. The Sultans who are to represent the states are giving race-based formulas which are racial, not Malaysian. The mindset of most voters is still racial. Until political parties offer genuine multiracial alternatives and forge a policy discussion that moves beyond race, a common platform is difficult.

9. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: Will the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) be able to recover loss ground?
Bridget Welsh: The MIC has faced crises before, but not like this one. I think that this will have serious repercussions on the party and the longer Samy Vellu tries to stay on, the worse it is for the party. The MIC has lost tremendous credibility as a representative of the Indian community, as the results in the election showed, and it will take new leadership and considerable reform within the party to build back its support. The entire structure and identity of the MIC will have to change for the party – making it more inclusive within the Indian community – for the party to regain its position. It needs to be much more vocal on the substantive issues that affect not only the Indian Malaysian community, but disempowered Malaysians of all races.

The MCA by comparison is much stronger. It has suffered bruising electorally before and this round it has won at least a handful of seats. The divisions with the party as yet do not match the intensity of the Team A-Team B fight, although infighting is intense. The party has been undergoing some reform over the past few years, thus it is in a better position to manage the difficulties ahead. Its challenge remains the issue of representation. The MCA’s loss was as much a product of their ineffectiveness in addressing the needs of Chinese Malaysians as well as their style of engagement with the public. The party needs to be more inclusive of the Chinese Malaysian community – move beyond clan associations, engage in dialogue, and reduce elitism. Crucial, is reaching out to younger Chinese.

10. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: What’s your assessment of Najib Razak? The Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Bridget Welsh: He is a good administrator, and has played a key role in the Abdullah administration. This is not generally known about him, and he is not given credit for the important contributions he is making to running government. He is intelligent and strongly committed to Malaysia. There are clearly issues, however, that cloud his leadership, from rumours involving submarine deals to the ongoing Mongolian trial. These issues need to be resolved in a transparent manner in order for Najib Tun Razak to gain greater credibility nationally. His public image needs to be stronger if he is to continue to lead effectively. His strength remains within his own party, not the general public. Today, it is essential to have both party and public mandates.

11. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: Can Malaysia still achieve Vision 2020? Developed Nation Status?
Bridget Welsh: Malaysia has made tremendous progress in development, and should deservedly be acknowledged for this success in areas of growth, per capita income, infrastructure, technology and more. Since I first moved to Malaysia in 1980, I have observed first-hand the country’s progress and the development in the country has been impressive. The focus, however, has been on the “hardware” of development, not the “software” – specifically areas such as education and human capital development. These areas will be critical in the future. The distribution of development gains also needs to be addressed. Since 1997, the gaps in income levels within different ethnic communities have widened. There are regional disparities as well. In light of these current gaps, I do not believe Vision 2020 is attainable throughout Malaysia, notably due to the regional disparities East Malaysia, by 2020.

12. Imran Imtiaz Shah Yacob: If you met Abdullah Badawi today, what would you say to him?
Bridget Welsh: After praising him for allowing a more open system to emerge in Malaysia, I would urge him to listen to a wider group of advisers, empower more effective policy implementers and fulfil the promises of reforms that Malaysians are calling for. I would wish him the best in traversing the difficult road ahead.