Although the BN has retained its two-thirds majority, it may not be a good yardstick for Najib to call for snap polls just yet, say analysts.
Political analysts, however, agree that there are several indicators from the state polls that needed to be taken heed of, especially in the case of Chinese votes.
Ooi Kee Beng, co-ordinator of Malaysia study programme at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said national sentiments were not as strong as what the media portrayed.
“Yes, the mandate was given to BN and Umno, but we tend to play up the connection between the polls and national sentiments a bit too much,” Ooi said.
However, he said that there were certain factors from the state election which could not be transferred to the national political scene. One example was the campaigning itself.
Ooi sees this as a test of skills between Pakatan Rakyat and the BN where the latter is clearly lagging behind.
“Pakatan can be quite formidable opponents. I won’t say that their campaigning is creating ‘shock and awe’, that is a little too much.
“But I will say that their campaign had a lot of energy,” he said, adding that BN rallies hardly came close in comparison.
Ooi said that Pakatan’s message of looking forward and harping on good governance in contrast to the incumbents gloating over their achievements appealed to voters.
He added that this should give Najib “second thoughts” on calling for early election. Another factor working against the BN is its racial politics.
“All BN parties which are non-Bumiputeras are losing ground on account of this… a case in point is SUPP. The BN model which is racial by nature may not be working,” he said.
Analysts also say the Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP) which won six out of 19 seats have lost the Chinese votes, their long-standing support base.
Ooi warned racial divisions are also creeping into Pakatan. He said that the DAP in reality is still a Chinese-based party although it says otherwise.
He said that DAP should shed itself of the perception that it is for the Chinese and Pakatan needs to bring back its message to the middle ground.
He added that one of the reasons why Najib Tun Razak may not call for early polls is that Pakatan-held states may refuse to take part, which may not be in favour of the prime minister.
Chinese votes ‘consistent’
Universiti Putra Malaysia lecturer Jayum Anak Jawan echoed Ooi’s sentiments. He said that results of the Sarawak polls could not be used as a barometer as the state is unique and it would be wrong to use it to gauge national sentiments.
He said that it was clear the Chinese in Sarawak were moving away from the BN as the voting patterns were “consistent” on both sides of the South China Sea.
“There are similarities. But I’m not sure if the Chinese in Sarawak are taking after the Chinese voters of 2008 in the Peninsula or if the Chinese in the Peninsula will follow the Chinese in Sarawak,” he said.
Another analyst Farish A Noor said it would be too risky for the ruling coalition to call for early polls as it had lost “significant” Chinese voters.
“Judging by the patterns of voting, with the DAP’s gains, it is clear that the Chinese votes in Sarawak have moved to the oppostion,” he said.
Farish, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said BN needs to maintain that it is a multiracial party, adding that it is not a good sign it is losing the Chinese votes.
“Gerakan and MCA are losing support and it is not a good indicator that the Chinese parties in Sarawak have lost.”
Farish was of the view that since the Chinese votes are significant in states such as Penang, Selangor and Perak, the snap polls would be held off for now.
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