Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim is likely to be convicted for sodomy in the coming months, the influential Economist Intelligence Unit said in its latest report.
Should this happen, the Pakatan Rakyat may be destablized as the 64-year old Anwar is still the glue that holds the coalition together.
"Without him, the ties that unite the disparate parties making up the Pakatan - PKR, PAS and DAP - are likely to fray. The process of choosing a new Pakatan spokesman could deepen the divisions within PKR as well as between the member parties,” the EIU said.
Dirty politics
In its June report, the EIU had also predicted that Prime Minister Najib Razak was likely to face a challenge from his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin for the Umno presidency.
As a result, Malaysia's political stability will come under threat in the next five years due to the internal strife within the two main political alliances.
The report also stated that Pakatan could be undermined in the next polls by the newly formed civil rights group, the Malaysian Civil Liberty Movement and the recently founded Parti Kesejahteraan Insan Tanah Air or KITA led by former Umno leader Zaid Ibrahim.
While both these newly-formed parties were unable to mount a full challenge, they could act as spoilers and split the votes that would otherwise have gone to the Pakatan.
"Pakatan currently has 76 parliamentary seats and it is possible that at least one-half of these could be contested by the MCLM, KITA, or both, thereby potentially taking votes from the opposition alliance," said the EIU.
Anwar is battling sodomy charges that he has accused Najib and wife Rosmah Mansor of fabricating against him for the purpose of derailing his political comeback.
Anwar is being charged for sodomising his former staff, Saiful Bukhari Azlan, in June 2008 just weeks after he announced his intention to contest the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat.
His defence has been called and the court due to hear his case from June 6 to June 30. His lawyers are expected to call Najib and Rosmah to testify although chances are high that both the prosecution and trial judge will try to block this move.
The Attorney-General's chambers as well as the judge are perceived to favour the BN government. On Thursday, Anwar will apply for trial judge Mohd Zabidin Mohd Diah to recuse himself for “prejudging” the case.
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