The Anwar Ibrahim by-election could be decided by one main factor: how far the majority Malay voters are influenced by the sodomy accusation against him.
Although the opposition chief is widely expected to win, he needs to carry a huge Malay vote to show he has moral standing in his own community.
This is because the Barisan Nasional (BN) campaign has zoomed in on one issue only - the sodomy allegation by his former aide Saiful Bukhari Azlan.
At a BN operations centre, a big screen facing the main road has continuously shown a video of Saiful swearing on the Koran in a mosque that Anwar had sexually assaulted him in June.
Its none-too-subtle message to Malay voters: Why is Anwar not taking the oath too?
Several Malays told The Straits Times that the sodomy issue has become a factor as it has been played up by the mainstream media.
"I am not sure if this will affect him, but the issue is the first thing you see on TV daily," said housewife Maznah Ramli, 48, from Kampung Sama Gagah.
Abu Shukor Abdullah, 41, a clerk from the same village, agreed. He said: "People who are 45 years old and above just watch TV and don't get other views. The younger generation gets alternative news from the Internet."
He added: "If Anwar swears by the Koran tomorrow, he will get 100 per cent Malay support."
The former aide had accused the opposition leader of sodomising him on June 28, and on Wednesday piled pressure on Anwar when he made a report about the alleged sexual assault at the Federal Territory Islamic Department.
BN leaders who campaign in Permatang Pauh have mentioned the sodomy allegations repeatedly, in the hope of swaying Malay voters.
Last weekend, deputy prime minister Najib Razak, who is leading the BN election campaign, told voters: "Your duty is to elect someone to represent and work for you, not to save Anwar."
The DPM also addressed accusations levelled at BN for conspiring to bring him down, saying: "He chose Saiful, a person whom some would call jambu (beautiful). We did not interview or hire Saiful, so where is the conspiracy?"
Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) campaign workers said that while they have sewn up most of the Chinese and Indian vote, they are worried that older-generation Malays might swing away from Anwar.
Malays form 69.4 per cent of Permatang Pauh's 59,000 voters, so a major swing would hit Anwar hard. The previous MP for the constituency, his wife Wan Azizah Ismail, polled a majority of 13,398 votes.
One day after Saiful made his oath, PKR quietly carried out a flash survey of 277 Malays to gauge their response. Younger voters remained unaffected, but 45 per cent of those 60 years old and above said Anwar must also take the oath.
"We feel this could be a problem," said PKR strategist Saifuddin Nasution.
Anwar's party has since printed leaflets to explain Islamic law on oath-taking, and speak about the issue in door-to-door campaigns and in mosques.
The opposition leader himself did not dodge the issue in his campaign stops.
Addressing several hundred Malays at Kampung Sama Gagah on Wednesday evening, he said he continued to be maligned over the sodomy issue.
"I did not take the oath because I had gone to the Islamic court and the ulama (Muslim clerics) said I did not have to," he said.
Asia News Network
22/08/08
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