The only glue which holds BN component parties together is federal power. They have no ideology, nothing in common. Once that is lost, BN will break up.
Umno is in a dominant position only because it has the ability to distribute patronage. Once that ability is gone, the rest of the component parties will not accept Umno's dominance.
Can Umno accept a non-dominant, equal partnership role? If can, then maybe MCA and MIC will stand together with Umno. Otherwise the opposition will be fragmented until Umno can reform itself to accept an equal partnership coalition.
As most of BN's political power comes from Sabah and Sarawak, to get back power with the break up of BN may require decades to build back the coalition, provided that PR becomes corrupt and loses favour with voters.
For BN to grab back power after one term is highly unlikely as BN will not exist in its present form after the loss of federal power.
By the way, BN is currently doing all it can to alienate voters and lose power. Their inadequate and sometimes arrogant response to the death of Teoh Beng Hock is a case in point. Sodomy II and MACC's transparent attacks on the Selangor government are exactly what will kill them.
The Barisan Nasional are too arrogant to change. They probably feel that they have been in power for more than 50 years and that they would continue to rule for another 50 or perhaps for all eternity. In fact a lot is at stake: power, status and money, to name a few. 2008 was unexpected and a lot of soul-searching was carried out by the BN to the extent of recapturing Perak through devious means. The sweeping investigations against PKR politicians is another dirty handed method of creating instability in Selangor with the ulterior motive of recapturing it.
Najib is a shrewd politician ably assisted by a think-tank that is just as astute if not more. Positive plans such as the KPIs and NKRA are being introduced with much fanfare to cover up some of the allegations against the PM such as the Mongolian affair, the purchase of submarines and recently the ‘forceful’ takeover of Perak. With so many positive plans being put forward, Najib hopes that the people will feel good about him. He knows that more plans have to be introduced to cushion the people’s grunting against the rise of bus and taxi fares and soon the increase of electricity tariffs.
Najib has to be more cautious and not think that the people would accept these so called “good” policies in toto. Even the kampung dwellers are now smarter; they take whatever “sweets” that are offered during by-elections campaigns and then vote for the opposition.
If BN plans to remain in power, it has to be sincere in its policies. Najib has to ensure that his One-Malaysia ideology targets the rakyat as one people, one race – Malaysians and not The Barisan Nasional are too arrogant to change. They probably feel that they have been in power for more than 50 years and that they would continue to rule for another 50 or perhaps for all eternity. In fact a lot is at stake: power, status and money, to name a few. 2008 was unexpected and a lot of soul-searching was carried out by the BN to the extent of recapturing Perak through devious means. The sweeping investigations against PKR politicians is another dirty handed method of creating instability in Selangor with the ulterior motive of recapturing it.
Najib is a shrewd politician ably assisted by a think-tank that is just as astute if not more. Positive plans such as the KPIs and NKRA are being introduced with much fanfare to cover up some of the allegations against the PM such as the Mongolian affair, the purchase of submarines and recently the ‘forceful’ takeover of Perak. With so many positive plans being put forward, Najib hopes that the people will feel good about him. He knows that more plans have to be introduced to cushion the people’s grunting against the rise of bus and taxi fares and soon the increase of electricity tariffs.
Najib has to be more cautious and not think that the people would accept these so called “good” policies in toto. Even the kampung dwellers are now smarter; they take whatever “sweets” that are offered during by-elections campaigns and then vote for the opposition.
If BN plans to remain in power, it has to be sincere in its policies. Najib has to ensure that his One-Malaysia ideology targets the rakyat as one people, one race – Malaysians and not aligning with racists Perkasa. As long as he continues adopting the quota system, bumiputra only policies and other unfair policies, One-Malaysia will remain just that in name. As much as he denies it, the cross-overs of S.S. Subramaniam and Chua Jui Meng to PKR must have sent a chill down his spine.
BN under Najib should weather the winds of change and try to win back the people’s trust with fairness. Any other way would mean a great possibility of a wipe out come the next General Elections.
As long as he continues adopting the quota system, bumiputra only policies and other unfair policies, One-Malaysia will remain just that in name. As much as he denies it, as much Sibu results would be anticipated.
BN under Najib should weather the winds of change and try to win back the people’s trust with fairness. Any other way would mean a great possibility of a wipe out come the next General Elections.
17/05/10
Umno is in a dominant position only because it has the ability to distribute patronage. Once that ability is gone, the rest of the component parties will not accept Umno's dominance.
Can Umno accept a non-dominant, equal partnership role? If can, then maybe MCA and MIC will stand together with Umno. Otherwise the opposition will be fragmented until Umno can reform itself to accept an equal partnership coalition.
As most of BN's political power comes from Sabah and Sarawak, to get back power with the break up of BN may require decades to build back the coalition, provided that PR becomes corrupt and loses favour with voters.
For BN to grab back power after one term is highly unlikely as BN will not exist in its present form after the loss of federal power.
By the way, BN is currently doing all it can to alienate voters and lose power. Their inadequate and sometimes arrogant response to the death of Teoh Beng Hock is a case in point. Sodomy II and MACC's transparent attacks on the Selangor government are exactly what will kill them.
The Barisan Nasional are too arrogant to change. They probably feel that they have been in power for more than 50 years and that they would continue to rule for another 50 or perhaps for all eternity. In fact a lot is at stake: power, status and money, to name a few. 2008 was unexpected and a lot of soul-searching was carried out by the BN to the extent of recapturing Perak through devious means. The sweeping investigations against PKR politicians is another dirty handed method of creating instability in Selangor with the ulterior motive of recapturing it.
Najib is a shrewd politician ably assisted by a think-tank that is just as astute if not more. Positive plans such as the KPIs and NKRA are being introduced with much fanfare to cover up some of the allegations against the PM such as the Mongolian affair, the purchase of submarines and recently the ‘forceful’ takeover of Perak. With so many positive plans being put forward, Najib hopes that the people will feel good about him. He knows that more plans have to be introduced to cushion the people’s grunting against the rise of bus and taxi fares and soon the increase of electricity tariffs.
Najib has to be more cautious and not think that the people would accept these so called “good” policies in toto. Even the kampung dwellers are now smarter; they take whatever “sweets” that are offered during by-elections campaigns and then vote for the opposition.
If BN plans to remain in power, it has to be sincere in its policies. Najib has to ensure that his One-Malaysia ideology targets the rakyat as one people, one race – Malaysians and not The Barisan Nasional are too arrogant to change. They probably feel that they have been in power for more than 50 years and that they would continue to rule for another 50 or perhaps for all eternity. In fact a lot is at stake: power, status and money, to name a few. 2008 was unexpected and a lot of soul-searching was carried out by the BN to the extent of recapturing Perak through devious means. The sweeping investigations against PKR politicians is another dirty handed method of creating instability in Selangor with the ulterior motive of recapturing it.
Najib is a shrewd politician ably assisted by a think-tank that is just as astute if not more. Positive plans such as the KPIs and NKRA are being introduced with much fanfare to cover up some of the allegations against the PM such as the Mongolian affair, the purchase of submarines and recently the ‘forceful’ takeover of Perak. With so many positive plans being put forward, Najib hopes that the people will feel good about him. He knows that more plans have to be introduced to cushion the people’s grunting against the rise of bus and taxi fares and soon the increase of electricity tariffs.
Najib has to be more cautious and not think that the people would accept these so called “good” policies in toto. Even the kampung dwellers are now smarter; they take whatever “sweets” that are offered during by-elections campaigns and then vote for the opposition.
If BN plans to remain in power, it has to be sincere in its policies. Najib has to ensure that his One-Malaysia ideology targets the rakyat as one people, one race – Malaysians and not aligning with racists Perkasa. As long as he continues adopting the quota system, bumiputra only policies and other unfair policies, One-Malaysia will remain just that in name. As much as he denies it, the cross-overs of S.S. Subramaniam and Chua Jui Meng to PKR must have sent a chill down his spine.
BN under Najib should weather the winds of change and try to win back the people’s trust with fairness. Any other way would mean a great possibility of a wipe out come the next General Elections.
As long as he continues adopting the quota system, bumiputra only policies and other unfair policies, One-Malaysia will remain just that in name. As much as he denies it, as much Sibu results would be anticipated.
BN under Najib should weather the winds of change and try to win back the people’s trust with fairness. Any other way would mean a great possibility of a wipe out come the next General Elections.
17/05/10
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