By Jahabar Sadiq,July 30, 2012
KUALA LUMPUR, July 30 — The drawn-out exit of two Sabah Barisan
Nasional (BN) leaders over the weekend is likely to delay a general
election from a firm September date to the end of the year as the ruling
coalition works to retain its “fixed deposit” in the Borneo states, say
sources.
BN sources in Sabah and Kuala Lumpur say the pledge by Tuaran MP
Datuk Seri Wilfred Bumburing and Beaufort MP Datuk Seri Lajim Ukin to
support Pakatan Rakyat (PR) is among reasons that Datuk Seri Najib Razak
is re-looking dates for a snap poll after Budget Day on September 28
for his personal mandate, some three years and three months after taking
power in April 2009.
Najib is now said to be re-looking at new dates for a snap poll. — File pic
“It is not likely in September now although Umno and its partners are ready for the polls,” a BN source from Kuala Lumpur told The Malaysian Insider.
Sources had earlier told The Malaysian Insider that a snap
poll was likely to happen in September if Najib carries through a plan
to dissolve Parliament in August, nine months before the BN mandate
expires in April 2013. There have been a few dates bandied about in the
past year although the country’s sixth prime minister has expressed
confidence of sweeping the majority of all state and federal seats.
Before the latest defection, BN controlled 22 out of the 25 federal
seats in Sabah and one in the Federal Territory of Labuan. In Election
2008, BN lost its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority largely
due to significant losses in the peninsula, where it won just 85 seats
while the opposition swept 80 seats.
BN’s saving grace was in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan where the pact
trounced the opposition and made a near-clean sweep, winning 55
parliamentary seats to the opposition’s two. But after the weekend, BN
now controls 136 federal seats while PR has 76 seats, SAPP two and eight
independents in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat.
A Sabah BN source also said a September date is unlikely due to the
latest developments in the state, as the ruling coalition will have to
ensure there are no serious ramifications from the walkout by the two
senior Sabah MPs. Lajim is a deputy minister and Umno supreme council
member while Bumburing is the United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut
Organisation (UPKO) deputy president.
“They both don’t have much influence outside their areas but it could
spread and prove to be a factor if polls are held soon. Then again, it
can fester and still be a problem later on,” he added.
There has been speculation since June that Bumburing and Lajim would
quit BN and support PR but it did not happen until the past weekend. “It
is a mystery why BN didn’t take action earlier against both of them,”
the Sabah BN source said.
Najib has said over the weekend that he will take action today over
Lajim’s move to drop all party posts. The prime minister has been
focusing on Sabah lately and even announced a much-wanted royal
commission of inquiry (RCI) into the state’s illegals problem although
no terms of reference or composition for the panel have been set yet.
Political analysts say BN has always treated Sabah and Sarawak as a
sure-fire vote bank as it battles to regain the dominant Malay vote in
the peninsula. “The loss of the Malay vote can be countered with votes
from Sabah and Sarawak but now, no one is sure anymore if there is a
fixed deposit,” a political analyst told The Malaysian Insider on condition of anonymity.
UiTM Sabah lecturer Arnold Puyok said last week his research showed
that the BN could lose more up to 14 seats it now holds in the state,
adding the Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan and Pensiangan seats are being
considered “easy wins” for the opposition. “I don’t think the ‘fixed
deposit’ will remain,” he was reported as saying.
Najib’s government has seen a slide in approval ratings with only 42
per cent giving a nod to his administration in a June survey carried out
by the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research in Peninsular Malaysia,
dropping by six percentage points from a month earlier.
But the prime minister remains popular, with a 64 per cent approval
rating in June, down from 65 per cent in May. His predecessor, Tun
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, went into Election 2008 with a 71 per cent
approval rating but lost the customary two-thirds parliamentary majority
and four states.
Najib is seen as the country’s most hardworking politician with
numerous visits to various districts including the latest round under
the Jelajah Janji Ditepati (Promises Fulfilled Tour) and cash handouts
and pledges to help various demographics.
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