A December election is unlikely because Najib Tun Razak 'realises he needs a mandate of his own making'.
One thing I am certain of is that it will be held sometime in March 2012. Speculations of GE this year is just that – rumours!
Umno has a problem with finding candidates with leadership qualities because it has never focused on constructing a system for selection and leadership succession.
The way it stands, I believe Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak realises that he needs a mandate of his own making – minus the BN components.
Why? Well, lets consider these facts.
If 18 out of the 20 seats now held by MCA, MIC and Gerakan falls to non-BN parties, then BN-Umno will be dependent on Sarawak and Sabah.
And if Sabah and Sarawak do not extend the lifeline to Umno and BN in Semenanjung, then the ruling coalition will find themselves on the opposition bench.
Look at the current scenario, all the leaders of BN component parties in Peninsular Malaysia are having trouble at finding a seat to contest. They are all political fugitives with no place to call home.
So far three Menteris Besar – Johor, Perak and Negeri Sembilan – have offered Chua a seat.
No clout
He can choose to stand in any one place but he has to prove his winnability claim.
His deputy Liow Tiong Lai is not going to have an easy time in Bentong. He hasn’t sorted out his promise to have a central spine road built in the town of Bentong.
See? A leader is judged on the standards of the Jurutera Jalan JKR.
Moving on, the MIC leader, G Palanivel, can’t re-contest in Hulu Selangor for he will surely be taken to task over the many things he promised the voters when he was their MP.
No one buys his cock and bull story about being sure of being chosen if not for last minute unseen hands.
In the Hulu Selangor by-election last year Palanivel was ‘poised’ to contest until Umno knowing he would lose, shoved him off and flagged P Kamalanathan. If Palanivel had stood in Hulu Selangor, he would have lost.
Easy compromise
But there are indications now that Palanivel will stand in Cameron Highlands replacing SK Devamany. If Devamany stands, MIC will lose that seat.
As for M Kayveas, the leader of the Peoples Progressive Party (PPP), as the Umno youth leader Khairy Jamaluddin recently said on his twitter message, he’s always a good show, warming the stage before the arrival of bigger leaders.
He is at his best element, bowl in hand begging to be given a seat.
Having said this, one fact stands out, which is that Umno in the end carries BN.
But unfortunately it is not seen as the dominant force that it once was. Umno has been reduced to constantly having to juggle between the competing needs of component BN parties.
So far, Najib is seen as being an easy compromiser.
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